Hey everyone!

I know it's been a while since my last update – I've been heads down since late last year juggling work, life, and quietly cooking up some new projects.

The past couple months have been especially intense, but I'm excited to finally share one of these projects with you today.

From what I’ve observed since last year, launching a legitimate project has never been harder in the ever-chaotic world of crypto.

Scams and rugpulls are rampant. Memecoins pop up by the hundreds daily. Even “fair launches” often end up anything but — with insiders getting in early and unsuspecting users left holding the bag.

For founders trying to build something real, the noise is deafening. And for early supporters who actually care about backing the next big thing, the risk of getting rugged is always lurking.

That’s why I built Pump.Build — a new kind of token launch platform, designed from the ground up to be trustless, transparent, and aligned with both builder and users.

Zero sniping.

Real accountability.

Lower risks for both founders and users.

And a launch process that rewards both the creators and the community.

In a landscape often characterised by extractive practices, Pump.Build offers a vision of what web3 launchpads can and should be: catalysts for innovation that serve all stakeholders in the ecosystem, not just platform owners or founders themselves.

Here’s how it works:

PS: If you're curious about the full flow, check out the docs on Gitbook here.

The Problem Space

The crypto space has always been plagued by malicious actors seeking to promote their next scam and rugpull by preying on greed and the fear of missing out from the general public.

Even the term "fair launch" has been bastardised to mean "equal opportunity" for anyone to buy, when everyone knows who has gotten the most tokens at the lowest price possible.

That said, there were improvements in the space over time starting with Pump.Fun which introduced a standardised token contract that users could trust and verify that it had no shady mechanisms - think freezing, burning, admin access control and other shenanigans that were prevalent earlier.

However, that introduced another set of problems — the low barriers to entry and ease of creating a new token have led to a flood of low-quality tokens, impersonators, and outright scams

While this heralded the age of memecoins, it also inevitably made it harder for real and legitimate projects to build and flourish in this space.

Introducing a Trustless Solution

We have decided to tackle this problem from the ground-up, and to design a system with the right incentives for both legitimate builders and early adopter users wishing to support the next big thing.

This is done through a unique implementation of an ethical and fair token launch in a trustless environment, while also accounting for founder and builder incentives (after all, we believe it is only right to compensate the builders for the time, effort, and energy that they put into their projects).

How does this process work?

In a nutshell, we have combined the multiple features of vesting, commitments, and price discovery into a single integrated process.

Upon token creation, the founder may define a target commitment amount, set a duration for the commitment round, and allocate a portion of the token supply for it.

These tokens allocated for the commitment round will be divided proportionally to all users who had participated, while if the target was not reached, users will be able to receive a full refund of the amount they had committed.

The founder may also choose to set vestees (e.g. himself, his team, early investors) from zero up to a maximum vesting percentage, and specify various amounts, cliffs, and vesting durations for each vestee.

With a successful commitment round, the project moves on to the price discovery phase with a customised bonding curve that is seeded with the SOL that users had committed previously.

Early supporters who had committed to the round can now claim their tokens and trade on the bonding curve; this process ensures that everyone receives tokens at essentially the same price.

When the bonding curve reaches its completion amount, it graduates to a liquidity pool, similar to how it works on Pump.Fun.

Note: This is a simple outline to help you better understand the process, we go further in-depth into each step in the subsequent sections on Gitbook.

Community-First Approach

Pump.Build adopts a Web 2.5 and email-first approach as a community platform built on top of a token launchpad — supporting projects through both their pre-launch and post-launch phases.

Social features are being designed to help founders continuously engage their supporters and communities, gather feedback on what works (and what doesn't), launch built-in marketing and growth campaigns, and access a suite of audited smart contracts — including staking, delegation, governance, and more — to deliver meaningful utility to their users.

Of course, much of this is still in development. For now, we're focused on delivering our core value proposition: building a trustless token launchpad, currently being tested on the Solana Devnet.

Behind The Name: Pump.Build

We believe that for all its flaws, Pump.fun revolutionised the memecoin meta by enabling safe and trustworthy token contracts — giving anyone the ability to launch a token without needing any technical knowledge.

Whether for better or worse, this sparked a wave across the crypto space that reshaped how tokens were created and communities were formed.

In homage to Pump.fun (and because it's insanely difficult to find a good name and domain), we decided to call ourselves Pump.Build. It’s a playful nod to Pump.fun, yet also a philosophical contrast.

Where Pump.fun leans fully into degen culture, memecoins, and short-lived hype, Pump.Build is about long-term value, sustainable growth, and high-quality projects. Still community-driven. Still exciting. Just less chaotic.

We know the name may carry some baggage — but we believe the recognition and familiarity outweigh the downsides. By building around the Pump.fun phenomenon, we give users an immediate sense of what we're doing… and where we intend to take it.

With that spirit, we also hope to spark a new wave of real, credible crypto projects launching under .build domains — just as .fun became iconic in the memecoin space.

Fun Fact About Our Logo

Our logo features a blue brick — a specific type of engineering brick known for its exceptional durability. These bricks are produced by firing clay at extremely high temperatures in low-oxygen environments, resulting in a dense, non-porous structure and a distinct deep blue colour.

It’s more than just aesthetic. The blue brick symbolises structure, resilience, and a deliberate approach — qualities we aim to embody at every level of Pump.Build.

We also chose blue intentionally — as a calm, stable contrast to Pump.fun’s green-and-white pill icon. While their branding evokes fast-paced launches and meme-fuelled energy, ours reflects a more deliberate, grounded approach.

Thanks for reading — and if you’ve made it this far, I appreciate you.

Pump.Build is still in active development, and we’re just getting started.

If this resonates with you — whether you’re a founder, builder, or early supporter — I’d love to hear your thoughts.

You can check out the full docs here or just reply to this post.

Cheers,

0xBlockBard

WenBullRun is designed for busy (or lazy) working professionals who find it challenging to stay on top of fast-moving crypto markets amid their demanding nine-to-five grind.

By spending just about ten to twenty seconds a day, you can quickly gauge the overall market trend using our set of key indicators displayed in a dashboard style.

However, please note that WenBullRun is not intended to replace your own thorough research into individual projects and blockchains.

Instead, it should serve as a helpful complement to your existing efforts.

Ultimately, informed decision-making requires diligent study on your part. Consider this tool as a starting point for each day — a concise snapshot of the current state of the crypto landscape.

Key Indicators

Below are the primary indicators WenBullRun tracks. Each one provides a different perspective on market conditions, and together, they can help you better understand the broader trends at play.

• Price Action (BTC/ETH/SOL)
  We provide current prices and historical comparisons over 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day periods. Observing how these leading assets move over various time frames can help you understand whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or moving sideways.

• Market Dominance (BTC/USDT/ETH/SOL)
  Market dominance measures the relative share of total market capitalization held by specific assets. Shifts in dominance can reveal changing investor preferences—for example, if Bitcoin’s dominance decreases, it may suggest growing interest in alternative assets.

• Fear & Greed Index
  This index is a compilation of seven different indicators that measure some aspect of stock market behaviour. A value of 100 represents maximum greediness, and a value of 0 signals maximum fear. You can gauge whether the market is leaning toward optimism or caution by comparing current sentiment to historical highs, lows, and averages (7, 30, and 90 days).

• Quarterly Crypto Venture Capital (VC) Data
  Tracking the volume and number of VC deals each quarter provides insights into the level of institutional and corporate interest in crypto. Periods with increased funding may indicate renewed confidence, while declining figures could suggest a more conservative environment.

• Google Trends Data
  Monitoring worldwide search interest in terms like “Bitcoin”, “Ethereum”, “Solana”, “crypto”, and “web3” over the past five years helps identify shifts in broader public attention. An increase in search activity may coincide with rising interest from new market participants, while subdued activity might indicate a lack of general enthusiasm.

• Coinbase App Ranking
  Tracking the Coinbase app’s position in major app store rankings offers a proxy for retail engagement. Historically, surges in ranking have aligned with heightened public interest and sometimes market peaks. By keeping an eye on this metric, you can gain insights into when retail participation may be reaching critical levels or, conversely, when they may be starting to lose steam.

How to Interpret Google Trends Data

Google Trends normalizes search interest to a scale where each term’s highest point over the selected timeframe (e.g. five years) is set to 100, and all other values represent relative interest compared to that peak.

This means a score of 50 indicates the term’s popularity was half of its maximum level, not that the search volume halved.

Keep in mind that these figures reflect relative rather than absolute volumes and vary based on the time period and region selected.

• A value of 100 indicates the highest level of interest for the term during the past five years.

• A value of 75 means that the term’s popularity is three-quarters of its peak value.

• A value of 50 means that the term’s popularity is half of its peak value.

• A value of 25 means that the term’s popularity is one-quarter of its peak value

It’s important to note that these values are specific to each individual search term. For example, a value of 70 for “Bitcoin” is not directly comparable to a value of 50 for “Ethereum,” because each is measured against its own historical peak.

What you can do is observe the general trend within each individual search term or observe and compare the general trend across different search terms to see if the general interest in crypto is rising or decreasing.

If several key terms all show increasing values over the past 30, 90, and 180 days, this may indicate growing mainstream awareness or participation.

General Interpretation of Key Indicators

No single indicator can fully explain market behaviour. Instead, consider how these metrics interact to form a coherent picture.

For instance, if price trends appear positive while the Fear & Greed Index shows increasing optimism, and the Coinbase app is climbing in the rankings, the market may be nearing a period of heightened speculative activity.

Conversely, flat or declining prices combined with reduced search interest and stablecoin dominance might suggest a more cautious environment.

In practice, use these indicators as a guide—a way to quickly assess where the market may be heading.

While WenBullRun simplifies and streamlines your initial market check-in, remember that making thorough investment decisions still calls for more detailed research.

These indicators serve as a helpful starting point when you need a quick check on the market’s pulse, not a definitive answer.

That said, there are some general heuristics for when we are moving to a bull run or bear market:

General Signs of a Coming Bull Run

Look for a combination of these signals appearing together:

• Increasing Greed on the Fear & Greed Index (Trending above 65): As the Fear & Greed Index starts to lean more towards Greed, it may indicate that investors are ready to take on more risk by entering the market. This psychological shift often precedes increased market activity and investment.

• Rising Bitcoin Price and Decreasing Bitcoin Dominance: Widely regarded as a store of value and a benchmark asset in crypto, an increase in Bitcoin's price coupled with declining dominance often reflects rising demand for Bitcoin while also signalling that investors are reallocating capital into altcoins to chase higher yields, indicating broader market confidence.

• Decreasing Tether Dominance: A reduction in funds parked in stablecoins represents growing investor confidence. It demonstrates that traders are moving away from conservative, low-yield assets and becoming more willing to deploy capital into higher-risk, potentially higher-reward crypto investments.

• Increasing Social Trend: Heightened search interest in crypto-related terms and increased Coinbase app installs on the App Store are leading indicators of broader market engagement. These metrics reflect growing retail investor awareness and anticipation of potential price movements.

When these conditions align, it often indicates that the market may be transitioning into a bullish phase.

In such environments, altcoins frequently benefit as capital flows out from Bitcoin and stablecoins, seeking higher returns in other projects.

Take Profits Gradually through Dollar-Cost Averaging

As the market shows signs of a bull run with the above signals, it's a good time to start DCA-ing out profits from crypto that you have accumulated during the bear market.

By systematically taking profits as prices rise, you lock in gains without attempting to time the market perfectly. This disciplined approach reduces emotional decision-making and ensures you benefit from market euphoria before a potential downturn.

If you haven’t invested much during the previous periods, you can still ride the momentum of the bull run while learning to accumulate and sell strategically for the next cycle.

Signs of a Coming Bear Run

On the other hand, here are some warning signals that could signal a potential market downturn and an incoming bearish phase:

• Increasing Fear on the Fear & Greed Index (Trending below 50): As the index shifts towards fear, it reflects growing investor pessimism and uncertainty. This psychological state often triggers a collective move towards more conservative investment strategies, with participants seeking to minimize potential losses.

• Stagnating or Increasing BTC Dominance: An increase or prolonged plateau in Bitcoin dominance typically signals that investors are retreating from riskier altcoins. This flight to Bitcoin's relative stability suggests a broader market defensive strategy, with participants prioritizing capital preservation over speculative gains.

• Stagnating or Increasing Tether Dominance: Growing capital allocation to stablecoins indicates a pronounced risk-averse environment. Traders are effectively moving to the sidelines, preserving capital and awaiting clearer market conditions or potential buying opportunities during market corrections.

• Decreasing Socials Trend: A decline in crypto-related search terms, app installs, and overall digital engagement serves as a leading indicator of waning market enthusiasm. This reduced public interest suggests diminishing retail investor participation and reduced market momentum in general.

These indicators collectively point toward a risk-off market environment. During such periods, altcoins are particularly vulnerable, often experiencing more significant price swings and value erosion as traders reallocate to more stable assets.

Accumulate Gradually as the Market Bottoms in Fear

During bear markets, as signalled by the indicators above, and especially when fear reaches its peak, and there is widespread hopelessness and lots of red in the markets... this is often the ideal opportunity to begin DCA-ing and accumulating your favourite crypto assets with strong fundamentals.

And while it’s nearly impossible to time the absolute bottom of the market, you can use a declining Fear & Greed Index (e.g. trending below 55) as a rough guide to identify potential entry points to start accumulating.

By spreading your purchases across the downturn, you mitigate the risk of catching falling knives and position yourself to benefit from eventual recoveries over the medium to long term.

Caveat: This is a long-term strategy that requires patience and discipline. Markets may take months or even years to recover, so it’s crucial to maintain a long-term outlook and avoid reacting emotionally to short-term volatility.

Bitcoin Dominance Cycle Chart

Here’s a summary of some common Bitcoin dominance trends and patterns in the chart below.

Do keep in mind that crypto markets are highly volatile, and while these patterns can provide some insights, outcomes may vary.

Always exercise caution and consider multiple factors when analyzing market trends.

Limitations of These Indicators

While the indicators and signals provided by WenBullRun can offer valuable insights into prevailing market conditions, it is essential to understand their inherent limitations.

These metrics are trend-based tools that assume relatively stable market environments. Under normal circumstances, they help you form a general view of the market’s direction, but they are not predictive models that guarantee future outcomes.

In particular, these indicators cannot account for unforeseen “black swan” events—rare and unpredictable occurrences that can dramatically alter market dynamics.

Examples might include major geopolitical conflicts, significant political events such as another assassination of Donald Trump, large-scale natural disasters, sudden regulatory crackdowns on crypto, or, conversely, transformative developments like countries adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Such events can lead to abrupt shifts in market sentiment, liquidity, and prices, rendering previously reliable indicators less meaningful in the short term. Indicators may swing dramatically between extremes, and well-established patterns could temporarily break down, creating a climate of heightened volatility and uncertainty.

As a result, it is crucial to treat these tools as just one part of your decision-making process.

Always complement indicator-based insights with your own research, careful judgment, and an awareness that markets can and do surprise even the most informed observers.

Conclusion

WenBullRun provides a quick overview of key market indicators to help you gauge overall crypto market sentiment and trends within just ten to twenty seconds.

While this tool can streamline your initial market check-in, it’s important to remember that the indicators presented here are only one part of a larger puzzle.

Use them as a starting point to understand where things might be heading, but always supplement with deeper research, monitoring current events, and assessing fundamental project developments.

Market dynamics are influenced by a wide range of factors, and no single tool or indicator can fully capture every nuance—particularly during periods of sudden, unexpected change.

By recognizing both the value and the limitations of these indicators, you can better integrate them into a comprehensive approach to navigating the crypto landscape.

Ultimately, WenBullRun aims to assist, not replace, the thoughtful work you put into making informed crypto investment decisions.

Hey everyone,

I want to apologise for making my previous call on RAT in Alpha Digest #6 on 29 November.

I was overly excited and bullish on this project, and genuinely believed that it had a lot of potential with a seemingly trustworthy leader at the helm, and a group of other experienced and season crypto traders who had been in the space since 2021 as the core team.

As a developer and builder, I initially thought that this would be a fun and interesting project to get onboard as well with all the hype. I was wrong.

As the project gained significant momentum, reaching a $5M market cap, several red flags began to appear with the founder.

First, there was a massive dip on the charts caused by an insider, followed by his dev wallet being hacked (through a common attack vector - installing a malicious file from a third-party ). This was something that should not have happened to someone with his supposed expertise being a crypto veteran for many years.

The hack drained $85k from the liquidity pool, crashing the market cap by $2.5M. Shortly after, his Discord account was also compromised—allegedly from the same hack, where attackers accessed his session tokens. This resulted in the banning of several key contributors and the deletion of important Discord channels.

What was most troubling, however, was his behaviour during these crises. As the hack unfolded, the entire core team urged him to take decisive action and be present to lead the community, including injecting more capital into the project to restore trust and confidence.

Yet, we heard nothing from him for hours as panic spread. When he finally responded, his attitude was surprisingly nonchalant as though the loss of $85k to $100k was not a big deal, further eroding our trust in his leadership.

And although there is no concrete evidence directly linking him to the cause directly or indirectly of these events that happened, the combination of these issues was enough for the six core team members, including myself, to unanimously step away from the project.

My message in the Discord server on leaving the project completely:

A question from a community member for more details:

Like everyone else, including core team members who had known the founder far longer than I had, I now realise that I was misled.

For context, YCC was the first paid Substack newsletter I joined several months ago, drawn in by the founder’s writing, charisma, and seemingly solid credibility.

When the token launched on pump.fun, I happened to be in the Discord and decided to join the hype by purchasing tokens as well (this was also my first time using pump.fun). I then offered to help with the tech and website as it aligned with my expertise.

At this moment, however, I have completely left the project and the team, transferring all digital assets, accounts, and the token holdings I acquired when I purchased them on pump.fun.

This totaled approximately 29M tokens, which at one point reached a value exceeding $150k from an initial investment of around 3-4 SOL (~$1000). That’s more than 150x, yet I never sold any of these tokens (all of which is fully verifiable on-chain).

For full disclosure, my message to Duo on leaving the project completely:

By 2pm UTC, I had transferred ownership of all digital assets and website code over to Duo and a new member who took over the tech role.

Ending Words

I would want to take responsibility for sharing what I believed was good alpha that turned out to be a disaster.

If you had bought into this project based on my newsletter and incurred losses, please reach out to me via DM here or on Twitter/X and I’ll do my best to make it right with the recovery fund that I have set aside to help those who had been negatively impacted by my call.

Again, I deeply regret the situation and appreciate your understanding.

I’ve learned from this experience and will continue striving to improve how I assess and share projects in the future—though I’ll probably steer clear of memecoins for a while.

In the weeks or months to come, I may perhaps write a longer article diving into what exactly happened and how these events unfolded, as I believe there are important lessons that can be learned and shared with everyone from this experience as a silver lining.

GM and welcome all new subscribers to the 6th edition of my Alpha Digest!

This issue will be pretty short as I’m currently busy working on something big which I’ll share more below:

• Market Overview and Sentiments

• Alpha: Memecoin

Market Overview and Sentiments

We’re still in the middle of the bull run, with Bitcoin leading the charge and teasing investors at the $100k milestone. Many investors anticipate Bitcoin will break this barrier before the end of the year, which could either mean an explosive breakout to $120k and beyond or a fall again to $90k+.

At the same time, we have alt season upon us, with Ethereum finally making a resurgence at last. Investors are taking profits from their Bitcoin holdings and divesting them into other altcoins.We can observe this from the general decline in Bitcoin and Tether dominance with the simultaneous increase in Bitcoin price.

How long can this bull run last?

I remain cautiously optimistic that it still has some steam left in the short run and that Bitcoin will be able to break past $100k by the end of 2024, with several altcoins performing well.

At the same time, I think possible dark signs are looming over the horizon in 2025, and we will have to be prepared and ready to shift over from bull run mode to bear market mode at a moment’s notice when necessary.

Alpha: Memecoin

This newsletter was meant to go out earlier this week, but for good reason, it got delayed—I was unexpectedly swept up in meme-coin mania. A private community I’m part of launched a token on pump.fun, and things took off from there.

—

It has come to my attention that there could be several things wrong or suspicious behind this token, and I have thus removed content related to it.

—

Cheers,

0xBlockBard

GM and welcome back to the 5th edition of my Crypto Alpha Digest!

Apologies for the delay in this week's edition as I've been dealing with a particularly bad case of writer's block.

Request for Gitcoin Support

If you've found value in my crypto alpha editions, I have a small request.

The Sei Creator Fund program on Gitcoin is ending soon, and I'd be grateful for your support of my project.

What makes this opportunity special is the matching grant component.

Every contribution, no matter how small, is amplified through Gitcoin's quadratic funding model. This means your donation could be matched and multiplied, significantly increasing its impact!

Your contribution will enable me to continue producing high-quality research and articles, with an added focus on emerging Sei projects.

Every bit of support is deeply appreciated and will help sustain and expand my work. Plus, with the matching grant, your support goes even further in fueling this research.

Alright, now let’s dive into this week’s edition!

Important: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high-risk. Only invest what you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The crypto market has been treading water this week, with no significant price swings to report. Bitcoin is consolidating between $57,000 and $61,000, while Ethereum remains steady in the $2,500 to $2,700 range.

This period of relative stability suggests we're in an accumulation phase as investors cautiously position themselves ahead of two major events: the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision next month and the unfolding dynamics of the US presidential election.

From a crypto market perspective, a Trump presidency is generally viewed as more bullish for the sector.

Recent polls on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, indicate a close race for the upcoming Presidential election. Trump currently holds a slight lead with 51% odds, compared to Harris at 47%.

However, it's important to note that these figures represent a snapshot of current sentiment rather than a definitive forecast. The political landscape remains fluid, and several factors could influence these odds in the coming months.

While Harris has recently voiced support for crypto-friendly policies, there's a palpable sense of skepticism in the crypto community (after all, just look at what has been accomplished under the Biden Administration and with Gary Gensler at the helm of the SEC).

Given the current administration's track record of stifling crypto growth and innovation over the past four years, many view her sudden pro-crypto stance as an election tactic to court crypto-enthusiasts.

Adding to the uncertainty is the potential future role of Gary Gensler, the driving force behind the SEC's aggressive stance on crypto.

Rumors are circulating that Harris might nominate Gensler as Treasury Secretary, a move that would give him even more significant influence over financial policy and regulation. However, upon further fact-checking, there are no trustworthy or credible sources of the rumours, and they are likely to be untrue.

Nevertheless, these rumors have gained traction, and this possibility alone has many in the crypto space concerned about the potential for continued regulatory headwinds should Harris become the President and the current anti-crypto policies continue, albeit under a different guise.

Another major point of contention is the Democratic party's tax proposals to increase capital gains tax to 44.6% and push for a 25% tax on unrealized gains for the ultra-wealthy (those with over $100 million in assets).

While this proposal might seem attractive on paper at first glance – promising to bring in hundreds of millions in extra tax dollars to help with the budget deficit – its real-world implications could be far more complex and potentially detrimental.

Critics argue that such a tax could trigger an exodus of high-net-worth individuals from the US, shrinking the very tax base it aims to tap into. Moreover, there are concerns that this policy could reduce future profit streams for companies and ultimately decrease the overall amount of wealth subject to taxation.

As we navigate these uncertain waters, the coming months will be crucial in shaping the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. The election outcome and subsequent policy decisions will likely have far-reaching implications for the growth and innovation potential of the crypto market.

On TON Ventures & TON Society

TON Ventures, a $40 million fund, has launched to foster early-stage crypto projects within the TON ecosystem. Led by former TON Foundation senior executives, the fund aims to drive innovation and adoption across the TON blockchain.

The fund focuses on consumer applications and Web3 gaming, leveraging TON's unique integration with Telegram's 900 million users. Beyond funding, TON Ventures provides hands-on support, access to a global network, and growth opportunities through Telegram’s channels.

This launch coincides with significant growth in the TON ecosystem. TON has recently surpassed Ethereum in daily active users, with total assets increasing from $71 million to $1.14 billion in early 2024.

The rise of tap-to-earn gaming has been a key driver, attracting millions of new users to the Web3 space. TON's integration with Telegram offers a seamless entry point for users, particularly in gaming, where its infrastructure can handle millions of transactions per second.

This unique advantage has attracted investments from major venture capital firms. TON Ventures is now positioned to play a crucial role in shaping the future of the TON ecosystem, supporting projects that can leverage these strengths for mass adoption.

TON Society

Alongside TON Ventures, TON Society has also officially launched as an independent initiative to promote decentralization within the TON (The Open Network) ecosystem. Its primary focus is on boosting ecosystem development, encouraging community engagement at the grassroots level, and improving on-chain identity.

One of TON Society's main goals is the creation of an on-chain identity system. Active members will receive on-chain achievement badges, creating a reputation system that works with all TON Society functions.

This on-chain ID system will be integrated into various aspects of the TON Society, including membership, event attendance, hackathon access, and qualification for airdrops with partner projects.

Now is an excellent time to start participating in TON ecosystem activities, potentially making you eligible for future airdrops from partner projects.

If you have programming skills, you can contribute by participating in the bounties program or online hackathons.

Alternatively, you can simply join the next Twitter space or AMA hosted by TON Society and be rewarded for doing so.

Degen Szn on TRON Network

Keeping true to crypto’s highly speculative nature, memecoins have been given another boost after flagging interest on Solana, Blast, and Base.

Over the past week, memecoin season on the Tron blockchain was kickstarted by the launch of the SunPump platform, modeled after its Solana-based counterpart Pump.fun.

Daily activity and revenue generation on SunPump has since grew rapidly over the last two weeks, as degens from other chains flocked to it.

The rapid rise of SunPump has had a profound impact on the Tron ecosystem, leading to record-breaking daily revenues for the network, peaking at $5.33 million.

The popularity of meme coins such as SunDog (SUNDOG), which reached a market cap of $223 million, underscores the potential for significant gains, as some early investors saw their small investments turn into millions.

Since its launch on August 9, 2024, SunPump has overseen the creation of over 31,000 memecoins, generating more than $2 million in revenue (approximately 12,811,356 $TRX).

Many view this new platform as a place with better opportunities to strike gold, especially as Pump.fun has become increasingly saturated.

With the support of $10 million in additional liquidity from Justin' Sun’s Meme Ecosystem Boost Incentive Program, SunPump aims to support emerging coins and reduce the number of rug pulls that could leave traders with worthless tokens.

The emergence of SunPump positions Tron as a competitive alternative to Solana for new memecoin launches. This shift could challenge Solana's dominance in this sector, particularly as the latter has seen a decline in meme coin trading volumes recently.

However, as we saw during the memecoin hype earlier this year, these trends tend to last only a few months before dropping off sharply, unsurprisingly, as most traders lose money on memecoin trading.

With support from Justin Sun, such as injecting liquidity to boost memecoins, we could most likely see a short-term revival of memecoins on the TRON network over the next few months. However, whether this momentum can be sustained remains to be seen.

The surge in memecoin activity might also serve as a gateway for Tron's ecosystem growth. If Justin Sun capitalizes on this momentum, we could see a spillover effect benefiting other sectors that have traditionally been quite weak on Tron, such as DeFi, as new users start to explore Tron's wider ecosystem.

Projects I’m Watching

Here are some interesting projects I’m watching at the moment:

Story Protocol

Story Protocol recently made headlines by raising a total of $140 million, including an $80 million Series B round led by a16z Crypto. The company aims to create a blockchain-based infrastructure that revolutionizes intellectual property (IP) management in the digital and AI era.

With the rise of generative AI, which often uses copyrighted material without proper compensation, Story Protocol addresses the growing challenges of protecting and monetizing creative works.

Story Protocol is pioneering the concept of tokenizing intellectual property (IP) on the blockchain, which is a multi-trillion-dollar asset class. The platform allows creators to declare ownership of their IP, establish usage rules, enforce them, and and receive automatic royalty payments through smart contracts.

This decentralized system offers creators better protection and monetization options than traditional methods

The company is focused on protecting creators from exploitation by large tech companies that use IP for AI training without consent. Their approach includes a "Proof-of-Creativity" protocol, which facilitates licensing and royalty payments, creating a decentralized and fair IP management system.

With strong backing from investors like a16z, Polychain Capital, and digital art collector Cozomo de’ Medici, Story Protocol is quickly becoming a crucial player in the effort to protect creative works in the AI-driven future. According to the team, they have already attracted over 200 teams, working with 20 million IPs across various sectors.

While a raise of $140 million is still an extremely high amount to think about, the AI market is expected to be worth over $800 billion by 2030 in comparison.

Should Story Protocol establish itself as the market leader for managing digital intellectual property through the blockchain, it would be very well positioned to capture a significant share of the market value generated.

Corn (Ethereum L2)

Corn is a newly launched Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) network that has recently garnered attention after securing $6.7 million in seed funding.

Led by experienced DeFi builders (0xzak and SpadaBoom), Corn is designed to enhance Ethereum’s scalability while offering a unique twist: it uses Bitcoin (BTC) as the gas token, instead of the typical ETH. This innovative approach aims to create a more secure and decentralized ecosystem for users.

Corn utilizes a hybrid tokenized Bitcoin called $BTCN, which is backed 1:1 by actual BTC. This setup aims to combine Bitcoin's security with Ethereum’s Layer 2 scalability.

To address centralization concerns, $BTCN is issued through multiple trusted custodians, smart contracts, and bridging protocols, making it more decentralized than typical wrapped Bitcoin tokens.

Corn’s tokenomics is also inspired by Curve Finance, which gives $CORN holders the power to direct protocol yields, while also incorporating a native bribe market to incentivize voting on specific applications.

Corn has also announced their Pre-Mainnet Airdrop, where you can participate in their Galxe quests that reward points from social engagement on Twitter, Telegram, and Discord.

Engaging with one or more of their partner protocols in the past 12 months will also be a qualifying eligibility for the initial airdrop phase.

Currently, Corn’s social quests are still in their very early phases, so I’d recommend getting started now if you are interested in any airdrops in the future.

B² Network (Bitcoin L2)

BSquared (B²) is a Bitcoin Layer 2 network designed to improve Bitcoin’s scalability and expand its functionality beyond simple transactions.

As the first Bitcoin Layer 2 network to utilize Zk-Rollups, B² will be able to enable faster and cheaper transactions while ensuring high security through Zero-Knowledge (ZK) proof verification.

B² is also Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatible, which allows developers to port dApps from Ethereum and interact with both Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems seamlessly.

With account abstraction from integrating with Particle Network, users will be able to manage both BTC and ETH accounts from a single interface too. This will help to streamline user experiences across different blockchains.

Overall, B² positions itself as a versatile platform capable of supporting DeFi, NFTs, and other dApps on Bitcoin.

In terms of TVL, there are some contrasting values from different sources. DefiLlama shows a TVL of $180m and a Bridged TVL of $231m, while B² shows a total TVL of about $421m. Another source on Dune Analytics list the total TVL of $359m, last updated 8 days ago.

This contrasts with another prominent Bitcoin L2, Stacks, which launched in 2018 and currently has a total of $91.72m TVL, according to DefiLlama.

As a relatively new platform, B² still faces challenges in achieving widespread adoption. However, B² is arguably the most prominent Bitcoin L2 at the moment, and is well-poised to take advantage of any future bitcoin hype and developers who want to leverage the advantages of both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

For those interested in exploring B² further, you can take a look at their ecosystem giveaways page, where you can receive airdrops for participating in activities and social quests.

One current event, Bedrock DeFi, is ending in 6 days. Participants who complete the social quests can earn a share of 100,000 Bedrock Diamonds and 2,000 Bedrock & B² Badges. Note that badges will be available as a free mint on a first-come, first-served basis.

Ending Thoughts

As we conclude this edition of the Crypto Alpha Digest, it's interesting to observe how much US politics impact the crypto market.

Currently, most people are anticipating the Federal Reserve's rate decision and monitoring the US presidential election developments. These factors will likely shape the crypto market's direction in the coming years.

However, despite the uncertainties in the market, there are still plenty of opportunities in the crypto space.

Many teams continue building in the background, positioning themselves for when market conditions improve. Meanwhile, the potential for another bull run in 2025 becomes ever more promising.

I hope this digest has helped you identify some promising opportunities and crypto alpha to take advantage of.

Thank you for your continued support and engagement. If there are specific topics you'd like covered in future editions, please reach out. Your feedback helps shape this newsletter.

If you've found value in this newsletter, please consider supporting my work through the Sei Creator Fund program on Gitcoin here.

Your contribution, no matter how small, will be matched and amplified thanks to Gitcoin's quadratic funding model.

This support will enable me to dedicate more time to research, expand our coverage, and continue delivering high-quality crypto insights.

Every contribution makes a difference and is deeply appreciated!

Stay curious, stay informed, and stay tuned for the next Crypto Alpha Digest.

Cheers,

0xBlockBard

P.S. Follow me on Twitter @0xBlockBard for updates between editions!

GM and welcome back to the 4th edition of my Alpha Digest!

Important: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high-risk. Only invest what you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The market has shown some signs of recovery following last week's crash, with whales buying the dip and spot Ethereum ETFs seeing $24.34 million in net inflows yesterday.

Bitcoin has rebounded to $60,887, marking a fairly significant 22% increase from its low of $49,842 just last week. Similarly, Ethereum has climbed to $2,733, a 23% recovery from its low of $2,226.

This recovery, while encouraging, should be viewed with cautious optimism. The market remains highly volatile, with many analysts expecting another dip and price correction before a larger rebound in Q4 as we near the US Elections.

Historically, Bitcoin (and the larger crypto market) tends to rally leading up to and after the US Presidential elections. This also coincides very nicely with the Bitcoin halving (almost like Satoshi planned it…)

However, as the saying goes, past performance is not indicative of future results, and there's always a chance this election could be an exception to the trend.

Therefore, it's crucial to consider this historical pattern alongside other market factors and indicators when making your investment decisions.

Yen Carry Trade: Is the unwinding over?

Not quite yet.

The recent market turmoil stems from the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, est at $450 billion.

According to analysts, only about 50 to 60% of this trade has been unwound so far, leaving significant room to continue.

The unwind so far has mainly involved foreign speculators who borrowed Yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies.

However, Japanese "real money" investors, including pension funds and insurance companies, also have significant exposure through unhedged foreign assets.

These Japanese investors own over $4.1 trillion of foreign stocks and bonds.

If they start to reduce these positions or increase hedging, it could significantly impact global markets.

Thankfully, analysts haven't seen evidence of this happening yet.

Key factors to watch that could indicate further unwinding:

1. Aggressive Fed rate cuts

2. If there is a major selloff in US Big Tech stocks

3. Increased market volatility from other sources

These events could force more de-risking of carry positions and potentially lead to broader market impacts.

As the Yen carry trade unwinds, analysts are eyeing the yuan and Swiss franc as potential new targets for carry trades. State Street and Citigroup analysts suggest the franc could replace the Yen as the go-to currency.

As investors potentially pivot from Yen to Franc or Yuan carry trades, it could trigger a domino effect affecting volatility across multiple currency pairs, leading to increased market uncertainty.

This shift could trigger significant capital flows, impacting global bond yields and equity markets.

Some analysts are concerned about the Yuan carry trade being unwound next (estimated to be greater than $500 billion as of 2022).

However, due to different underlying economic fundamentals, it is less likely to have the same impact as the Yen carry trade unwinding.

Projects I’m Watching

Move aside, Blast L2. The new talk of the market is now Sui, Sei, and Mantle.

While Crypto-AI and Real-World Asset (RWA) topics remain in focus, the former is becoming increasingly saturated.

Here are some projects that have caught my attention, and perhaps may catch yours too.

Haedal Protocol (Liquid Staking on Sui)

Haedal Protocol is a pioneering liquid staking protocol built on the Sui blockchain, designed to enhance liquidity and security within the ecosystem.

It allows users to stake their SUI tokens, contributing to governance and the overall decentralization of the Sui network.

In return, participants receive haSUI tokens, which can be used to generate additional yields in various decentralized finance (DeFi) activities.

This up-and-coming team has already made waves, winning both the Sui x KCLabs Hackathon in July 2023 and the Sui Liquid Staking Hackathon in December 2023.

Currently, Haedal Protocol has a total of $30.92 million in Total Value Locked (TVL) and is experiencing one of the fastest growth rates in the Sui ecosystem, with a 75.63% increase over the past seven days and a 27.74% increase over the past 30 days.

According to CoinMarketCap, the total market cap is estimated to be at $25,043,286, with a fully diluted market cap of $25,107,130.

Delysium (AI)

Delysium is a unique project building a collaboration network for autonomous AI agents, including Lucy and the YKILY (You Know I Love You) AI-Agent Network Layer, which is designed to function in parallel with the Blockchain Layer.

In more human-speak, Delysium aims to integrate many autonomous AI agents with specific roles and functions that can interact with dApps on the user’s behalf for various web3-related tasks.

Think about monitoring token contracts and transaction data, formulating trading strategies, finding the most efficient transaction routes across various on-chain markets, or even specific project and whitepaper analysis work.

The Delysium team has secured $14.02 million in funding to date. Their most significant rounds include a $10 million raise on October 17, 2022, and an undisclosed round of $4 million on March 14, 2022.

Currently, the Delysium token ($AGI) is trading at $0.132, representing approximately an 80% drop from its peak of $0.672 on March 10, 2024.

According to CoinMarketCap, the total market cap is estimated at $123,695,079, with a fully diluted market cap of $407,661,668.

With the recent release of their Lucy Beta and loyalty programs, we’ll see if this sparks renewed interest in Delysium in the crowded crypto-AI space.

Spectre AI

Spectre AI leverages artificial intelligence to provide advanced tools for crypto traders and investors.

The platform uses machine learning algorithms to analyze DeFi projects and historical data, identify patterns, predict cryptocurrency price movements, and generate short-term price forecasts for various timeframes, including 6, 12, 24, and 48 hours.

The Spectre AI Search Engine Closed Beta will be available to selected holders on August 20. For a more in-depth look on its features, check out this walk-through video by Sunny, Founder of Spectre AI.

The team is also looking to build a new product, Spectre DexScan, a reimagined and improved version of Dextools that offers advanced price-action charts, real-time buy and sell indicators, and other enhancements.

Specific funding details for the Spectre AI team remain undisclosed.

Looking at the current market performance, the Spectre token ($SPECTRE) is trading at $1.54, showing a 12.51% increase over the past seven days, but a 3.48% decrease over the past 30 days.

According to CoinMarketCap, the total market cap is estimated to be at $14,048,268, with a fully diluted market cap of $15,447,846.

MANTRA Chain

An up-and-coming RWA protocol, MANTRA Chain, has been capturing many eyeballs recently on Crypto Twitter with their business moves and community initiatives, most recently at Istanbul Blockchain Week.

Season 2 of the 50M $OM GenDrop launched recently on July 17, 2024, with various new missions for participants to complete.

Multiple avenues exist for ecosystem participation and GenDrop eligibility, including contributing to the USDY Chakra Liquidity Pool, completing user KYC, holding specific NFTs such as Pudgy Penguins, and being an active member of the community.

On market performance, the Mantra token ($ OM) is trading at $0.988, showing an 8.33% decrease over the past seven days and a 7.27% decline over the past 30 days.

According to CoinMarketCap, the total market cap is estimated at $827,740,366, with a fully diluted market cap of $879,194,598.

Previous Project Updates

Yaka Finance

This week marks the final stretch of Yaka Finance's mainnet campaign, set to conclude on August 19 at 12 PM UTC.

During this campaign, 4% of $YAKA's initial supply—equivalent to 8 million $YAKA tokens out of a total of 200 million—will be airdropped as rewards to participating users.

If you haven't yet participated, now is your final opportunity to engage in Yaka Finance's Zealy Social Quests at no cost.

Completing these quests will earn you an equal share of the 1,600,000 $YAKA tokens (20% of the airdrop allocation) that will be distributed among all participants who successfully complete them.

Covalent

Covalent's performance has been notably disappointing over the past month, with a sharp downward trend from $0.2115 on July 15, 2024, to its current price of $0.0599 today.

This decline comes despite its fundamentals remaining largely unchanged since before it migrated from the Moonbeam Network to Ethereum. In some aspects, the project's position could be considered stronger due to its presence on a more robust blockchain.

Beyond the broader market downturn, a very significant factor contributing to this price drop appears to be the actions of an early investor VC, Mechanism Capital, led by Andrew Kang.

According to Arkham Intelligence, the VC has divested its entire holdings of 30 million Covalent tokens ($CXT), valued at approximately $2.59 million then.

Given Covalent's relatively modest market cap of $50.84 million, the liquidation of such a substantial token position inevitably triggered a steep price decline.

Compounding the price pressure were various complications during the $CXT migration journey to Ethereum.

For instance, there were many users and early believers of Covalent who traded on Kraken, which had not halted its trading of the old deprecated CQT token until more than a week later.

With the Covalent team only able to provide Kraken with an equivalent number of new CXT tokens at the snapshot's established time, some users were left stranded, holding on to effectively worthless old CQT tokens.

Regardless of whether responsibility lies with the Covalent team or Kraken, it was ultimately the users who bore the brunt of the consequences. While some may have attempted to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities, others fell victim to inadequate communication and awareness about the ongoing situation.

These events have undeniably eroded trust within the community to some extent, and rebuilding this trust will require concerted effort and time from the Covalent team in the coming months.

It’s my take that despite recent positive developments, such as the partnership with Sei — which promises to integrate Covalent's GoldRush.dev technology stack — the road ahead remains challenging for the Covalent team.

They face the formidable tasks of rebuilding user trust, restoring investor confidence, and maintaining their focus on developing a world-class product.

Achieving these would be crucial for the project's long-term viability and success in the competitive blockchain data space.

Ending Thoughts

As we wrap up this edition of the Alpha Digest, it's crucial to approach the recent recovery with cautious optimism. While encouraging, the market remains volatile, and further price corrections are still possible.

Several key developments are poised to shape the crypto landscape in the coming months. The September US Federal Reserve meeting could bring higher-than-expected rate cuts, potentially impacting global markets and crypto sentiment.

The 2024 US elections are also heating up, with polls tightening between Trump and Harris. This political uncertainty could drive market volatility.

Geopolitically, simmering tensions in the Middle East raise concerns about oil supply, which could spike energy prices and rattle markets.

Despite these short-term uncertainties, I remain optimistic as we move towards Q4 and the US Elections and look ahead to 2025.

However, it's prudent to adopt a conservative approach still.

Always invest within your risk tolerance and consider holding greater stablecoin positions at this time while dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and your highest conviction plays.

Be aware that should a dip occur, altcoins would likely experience a sharper drop and be slower to recover than Bitcoin and Ethereum.

This approach will help you weather the market volatility while positioning yourself for long-term growth.

Thank you for your continued support and engagement. If there are specific topics you'd like covered in future editions, please reach out. Your feedback helps shape this newsletter.

Stay curious, stay informed, and stay tuned for the next Alpha Digest.

Cheers,

0xBlockBard

P.S. Follow me on Twitter @0xBlockBard for real-time updates between newsletters!

GM, and welcome to the 3rd edition of my Alpha Digest!

Important: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high-risk. Only invest what you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Markets opened to a bloodbath on Monday, experiencing one of the worst drops since 2022. The crypto market cap plummeted to a low of $1.78 trillion, representing a staggering 17.68% decline - the largest single-day drop since early 2022.

Although the market had been somewhat fearful and uncertain in the preceding days, few anticipated such a rapid and severe decline within such a short timeframe.

Over $1 billion were liquidated in crypto futures and derivatives, with the majority of losses concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

A significant factor in this drop was the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates to approximately 0.25% - their second rate hike since 2007 - in an effort to bolster the weakened Yen.

This interest rate hike triggered the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow Yen at low rates to invest in US Dollars or other higher-yield currencies. According to the Wall Street Journal, Japanese banks had lent approximately $1 trillion to foreign borrowers in yen as of March, a 21% increase from 2021.

As the Yen carry trade becomes increasingly less profitable (as the Yen strengthens against the USD), big players began to dump their USD investments to pay back their JPY loans.

Market Implications and Future Outlook

The critical question now is whether we've already witnessed the worst of this crash or if the market bleeding will continue.

Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, suggests that the Yen carry trade unwinding may still have some way to go.

The majority of the $1 trillion in Yen lending had been extended to banks and investment firms. These institutions had not hedged against exchange rate fluctuations due to the high cost of hedging and the relative stability provided by the Yen's eight-year period of negative interest rates.

However, as the Yen strengthens, these borrowers are now scrambling to hedge their loans. This necessitates buying Yen, which increases demand and further strengthens the currency, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

And as the yen gets stronger, more investors who had bet on a weak yen are closing out their bets by buying yen, further adding to its upward momentum.

This creates a 'vicious circle' where the Yen's appreciation triggers more buying, further strengthening the currency in a self-perpetuating loop.

Future Scenarios and Policy Expectations

While the Bank of Japan had initially signaled its intention to potentially continue raising interest rates, depending on economic performance, the recent market crash has sparked widespread criticism.

Critics argue that the bank's action was a poorly timed interest rate hike that has contributed significantly to global market turmoil.

Given the current market chaos and volatility, policymakers at the Bank of Japan are likely to postpone further interest rate increases in the short term.

Across the Pacific on the U.S. side, some analysts are speculating and hoping for an emergency Federal Reserve rate cut. The last time an emergency rate cut occurred was on March 15, 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conversely, other analysts argue that such a move would be a knee-jerk reaction. They contend that it would be a mistake for the Federal Reserve to capitulate to current market fears, as doing so could signal deeper economic concerns and potentially lead to even greater volatility.

An alternative and more plausible expectation is that the Federal Reserve might opt for a larger interest rate cut (from 50 to 75 basis points) at its September meeting to stimulate greater economic growth.

Also, while factors such as recession fears, rising U.S. unemployment, and escalating tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran are also at play, their impact in causing this market downturn is likely less significant.

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Dynamics

A recent paper, "What Drives Crypto Asset Prices?" analyzes the components driving crypto returns and stablecoin flows, and provides some interesting insights.

The authors, including the Chief Economist at Circle (i.e. USDC), a researcher at Uniswap, and an Assistant Professor of Finance concluded that crypto assets are becoming increasingly interconnected with the global financial system.

The study found that the same factors affecting stock and bond returns also influence cryptocurrency returns. For instance, over two-thirds of Bitcoin's sharp decline in 2022 could be attributed to contractionary monetary policy.

What this implies is that the commonly held view of Bitcoin as a safe haven and hedge against global uncertainty and market volatility, similar to Gold, may no longer hold true anymore.

Investors who previously relied on Bitcoin as a hedge against market downturns may need to reassess their approach and consider alternative hedging strategies to manage their portfolio risk.

Strategies for Navigating the Current Market

Most people, even seasoned investors since 2017, are finding it difficult to navigate the current market - the old crypto playbook seems less effective, and patterns from old cycles no longer seem to apply as strongly as they once did.

At times like this, it’s always a good reminder to go back to basics and stick to fundamentals.

1. Stay calm and never invest more than what you cannot afford to lose. If you do, fear and panic will begin to cloud your mind and lead to you making suboptimal decisions.

2. Consider dollar-cost averaging into well-researched projects or high-conviction plays, and do not try to predict or time the market exactly. Nobody knows how the markets will move.

3. Be patient and do your research. Keep an open mind to what’s going on in the markets and projects you’re interested in, and adjust your decision-making accordingly.

4. Understand your investment and risk profile; ensure your portfolio is well diversified with risk-return that you are comfortable with

Project Updates

With most altcoins down significantly, it's a good time to consider accumulating high-conviction plays. However, always approach with caution and thorough research.

Personally, I am buying the dip by slowly DCA-ing and mostly accumulating more Ethereum, along with a smaller basket of degen memecoins and altcoins such as Pendle, Covalent, Sui, Sei, and Mantle.

Mini-Spotlight: Hamster Kombat

A project on TON that I’ve been playing in my free time, Hamster Kombat, a free-to-play idle clicker game, has also recently announced that they will allocate 60% of the total token supply for community distribution.

While the exact tokenomics breakdown is not ready, it is expected that the higher your level in the game, the more tokens you will receive.

If you have not started, it’s probably not too late to join and grind a couple levels to qualify for the community airdrop.

Ending Thoughts

The increasing interconnectedness between crypto and traditional financial markets has both positive and negative implications.

On the positive side, it suggests growing mainstream acceptance and integration of crypto, which could lead to increased adoption and potentially more stable long-term growth. It also means that traditional financial analysis tools and strategies may become more applicable to crypto markets.

However, this interconnectedness also means that crypto markets are now more vulnerable to global economic factors and policy decisions. Events like changes in interest rates, geopolitical tensions, or shifts in monetary policy can now have more direct and immediate impacts on crypto prices, as we have just experienced.

This new reality requires crypto investors to broaden their analysis beyond just crypto-specific factors and pay closer attention to global economic trends and policies.

As always, I encourage you to do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Thank you for your continued support and engagement. If there are specific topics you'd like covered in future editions, please reach out. Your feedback helps shape this newsletter.

Stay curious, stay informed, and stay tuned for the next Alpha Digest.

Cheers,

0xBlockBard

P.S. Follow me on Twitter @0xBlockBard for real-time updates between newsletters!

GM and welcome to the 2nd edition of my Alpha Digest!

Important: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high-risk. Only invest what you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The crypto news this past week has primarily focused on the Ethereum ETF launch on July 24, 2024. According to crypto.news, "throughout the first week, Ethereum ETFs generated a total trading volume of approximately $4.05 billion, compared to $7.85 billion for Bitcoin ETFs in their initial week."

Given that most investors had anticipated and priced in the Ethereum ETF news in the weeks leading up to the launch, it's not surprising that a sell-the-news event occurred. Ethereum prices dropped about 10% throughout the past week, reaching a low of $3,098 on July 26 (though they have since largely recovered to around ~$3,286 at the time of writing).

A significant portion of the selling pressure came from net outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). This trust, initially launched in 2017, was only available to accredited investors and subject to a 6-month holding period with high fees of 2.5%. The launch of the Ethereum ETF has allowed investors to more easily move their funds to cheaper alternatives.

Unsurprisingly, Grayscale has recently launched a new Ethereum Mini Trust Fund (ETH), offering 0% fees for the first 6 months, after which fees will be 0.15%. Overall, the launch of the Ethereum ETF is positive news for the wider crypto market, as it more closely integrates with the traditional finance world, which is still about 46 times the size of the crypto market cap ($111.85T vs $2.43T).

Decentralised AI Fund

Additionally, Grayscale launched a new Decentralized AI Fund on July 17, 2024, focusing solely on crypto and web3 projects that integrate Artificial Intelligence and DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) technologies.

Currently, the fund’s holdings are fairly conservative, with the main AI and DePIN projects - Filecoin, NEAR, and Render - comprising the lion’s share.

Grayscale will rebalance its investment portfolio quarterly. Potential contenders that I believe could be added to their portfolio include The Graph ($GRT) and Arweave ($AR).

Overall, this indicates a positive medium to long-term outlook for the crypto AI and DePIN space.

Pendle Buying Opportunity

One of my missed trades, which I try not to dwell on too much, was Pendle when it was still trading at about $1. At the time, I was too preoccupied with my full-time work and other side projects to stay focused in managing my investment portfolio.

Pendle prices have dropped by about 36% over the past month and 45% from the May highs of approximately $7.2. If you've missed out on Pendle in the past or simply want to accumulate more, now might be a good time to DCA (dollar-cost average) in.

But don't just take my word for it. Hashkey Capital, known for its strong track record in trading $PENDLE, purchased 583,000 $PENDLE tokens for approximately $2.2 million on July 26 (at an average price of ~$3.77). This move comes after Hashkey Capital realized about $9.96 million in profits from $PENDLE trades in May.

Projects I’m Watching

Here are some projects that I believe have potential in the medium to long term:

LNQ AI

LinqAI ($LNQ - $0.262) is a cryptocurrency project that integrates artificial intelligence (AI) with the Web3 ecosystem to automate various business processes. The primary goal of LinqAI is to enhance operational efficiency by automating mundane tasks traditionally performed by human employees, allowing businesses to focus on more complex and creative challenges.

Their first product, Marketr V1, is nearing completion. It's essentially a Marketing-AI SaaS tool that generates end-to-end marketing campaigns with automatic social media posting, and with learning capabilities to optimise future output.

Based on the demo video and screenshots, Marketr looks to be a sleek and fairly comprehensive software that could be prove to be a sustainable business solution, and more importantly, beyond the crypto markets as well.

Cygnus Finance

Cygnus Finance is a RWA (Real World Asset) stablecoin protocol on Base that pioneers cgUSD, a native interest-bearing and anti-inflation stablecoin. cgUSD is rebased daily and backed by short-term U.S. Treasury bills as collateral.

Essentially, users can earn a competitive APY (currently 5.3% through USDC on Base) simply by holding cgUSD in their wallets. At present, the protocol has $78.46M in total value locked (TVL) and $479,178.08 in accumulated interest.

Users can mint cgUSD using either USDC or USDT on Base, Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, and TON. However, some chains are not yet fully operational, as indicated by pending contract addresses in their documentation.

Last week, Cygnus Finance announced a boost to $cgUSDT, offering a 30% APY on the TON blockchain with Tether's support. Users simply need to deposit USDT to receive $cgUSDT here. Currently, there are $44,839,801 in total assets locked in this offering.

Yaka Finance

Yaka Finance has entered the second week of its mainnet Points program, where participants earn points for on-chain actions such as swaps and providing liquidity to their pools

The campaign runs for one month, from July 19 to August 19. Additionally, the Yaka Finance team is set to receive another grant from Sei following this mainnet launch, which bodes well for their upcoming TGE (Token Generation Event).

As mentioned in my previous newsletter, I've begun farming points using Yaka Voyagers and other partner NFTs that I purchased.

To be frank, interacting with the Yaka Finance site was somewhat clunky. There appear to be several bugs and issues that the team needs to address to improve the user experience.

The swap exchange from Sei to USDC or USDT was suboptimal, with relatively high slippage. Nevertheless, I proceeded with a swap of about 2,000 Sei (approximately $750) to earn points, which I then deposited into their stable pools.

To my dismay, the points were not recorded for this transaction, and I didn't earn any points from the swap. The current 13.01 points reflected only an earlier $100 swap I had done the previous day as a test.

Support on Discord has not been the most responsive. I created a ticket but had to resort to posting about my issue in the Voyagers NFT chat to get the moderators' attention. The issue has apparently been passed on to the team, but I'm prepared to write off the missing points as a loss in any case.

For those still interested in participating, I recommend performing swaps on larger Sei DEXes like Dragon Swap, and then providing liquidity to the Yaka Finance pools.

Resources

I recently discovered an excellent Airdrop farming journal created by ShawnFarms, which I felt compelled to share with all my readers

Lots of high potential airdrop opportunities to explore, and remember it’s never too late to get started.

Ending Thoughts

As we've seen from this week's highlights, the crypto space never sleeps. From the launch of Ethereum ETFs to innovative projects like LNQ AI and Cygnus Finance, there's no shortage of developments to watch.

The Pendle situation also serves as a reminder that timing and vigilance are crucial in this market. As always, I encourage you to do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Thank you for your continued support and engagement. If there are specific topics you'd like covered in future editions, please reach out. Your feedback helps shape this newsletter.

Stay curious, stay informed, and stay tuned for the next Alpha Digest.

Cheers,

0xBlockBard

P.S. Follow me on Twitter @0xBlockBard for real-time updates between newsletters!

Wow, the crypto world has been on a wild ride since my last deep dive.

I owe you all an honest explanation - I've been knee-deep in other projects and, I admit, battling a serious case of procrastination. But I'm back now, and the crypto landscape is too exciting to ignore.

So, here's the plan: I'm kicking things off with a weekly alpha newsletter. I'll be sharing the projects that have caught my eye - the ones I believe have real potential to make waves in the medium to long term. Think of it as a curated peek into my crypto watchlist.

And for those of you who've been missing the deep dives, don't worry. I'm aiming to release at least one in-depth report each week, depending on how complex the project is. Some weeks I might manage multiple deep dives, others I might only produce one - but I promise that whenever I do release a report, it'll be thorough and insightful.

Important: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high-risk. Only invest what you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The market has been making erratic moves over the past couple of weeks. Just two weeks ago, some influencers were extremely bearish when the markets dipped as Germany dumped its bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin prices had dropped to $54k and Ethereum to $2.8k; I hope you guys managed to buy on this dip. If not, it’s probably not too late to slowly DCA your way in now. The medium to long-term forecast is pretty optimistic, with a crypto-supportive Trump administration expected to win in November 2024.

Looking at the Tether Dominance chart, USDT dominance has dropped from ~5.4% in early July during the dip to ~4.76% now, indicating increased deployment of capital into crypto projects.

On L2s, the Blast L2 had a good run-up to their airdrop on June 26, 2024. However, amid unclear communication and delays, investors' expectations weren't met, not to mention many users were misidentified as sybil bots, resulting in general discontent.

TVL on the Blast Network has dropped from ~$2.3B on June 6, 2024 to about ~1.3B today.

Does this mean Blast is out of the L2 game? I don’t think so, as Pacman, the founder of Blur and Blast has a solid track record in understanding crypto web3 users behaviour. It's likely only a matter of time before Blast moves beyond the oversaturated airdrop meta and adapts to the next hype cycle.

Base L2 is still going steady, and I’m enthusiastic about exploring frames on Farcaster (follow me here if you’re on Warpcast). There is a lot of potential and I’m on the lookout for good memecoins to enter after $BRETT and $TOSHI.

One L2 I'm particularly optimistic about is the Sei Network. It's been around for a while but was mostly ignored as people flocked to Arbitrum, Optimism, Blast, and Base in search of airdrops and points.

With the recent Sei V2 launch, which introduces a high-performance parallelized EVM, transaction finality is expected to significantly improve to sub-second levels, similar to high-performance blockchains like Solana.

Not many influencers are talking about Sei right now, but I expect this to change in the coming months if the trend continues. I would expect Sei to enter the mainstream crypto-twitter narrative soon. You heard it here first!

Projects I’m Watching

Here are some projects that I believe have potential in the medium to long term:

Covalent

Covalent is a modular data infrastructure and decentralised network  started in 2018 providing access to on-chain data over 200+ blockchains. 

The project has raised a total of over $20M from token sales to date, with the latest round making the news with a raise of $5M in strategic funding from a Series B on June 26, 2024. 

In addition, the high-profile Arthur Hayes (Co-Founder of BitMex and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom) has joined the team as a Strategic Advisor and will receive compensation in CXT tokens.

One major solution the team is working on is the “Ethereum Wayback Machine” or EWM for short, with the EWM testnet set to release in Q3 2024. The EWM offers perpetual access to all historical data on Ethereum and supported L2 chains, without which L2 rollup data (containing records of transactions) are only stored and available for about 18 days before being discarded.

As crypto becomes more mainstream in the future, and with increased user growth (i.e. from lower gas fees, more real world applications etc), there will be increasingly more transactions on the blockchain. 

This underscores the importance of having complete data sets for historical data on any blockchain, which can be used for multiple use-cases such as tax compliance tools, DEX analytics, and NFT dashboards among others.

Covalent has recently migrated their CQT tokens from the Moonbeam Network over to the CXT tokens on the Ethereum Mainnet, which in my opinion could have been better handled. Currently, many holders are still facing some issues after the migration, with many on several exchanges such as Kraken and Kucoin yet to receive their CXT tokens.

While Kucoin has agreed to support the migration, Kraken still allowed trading for the CQT tokens after the migration, which led to many disgruntled users who thought they were buying Covalent tokens for cheap.

Recently, Kraken announced that they would exchange CQT tokens for CXT tokens at a 1-1 ratio based on the 12 July snapshot. (Disclaimer: I am one of those who held about $1k worth of CQT tokens on Kraken before the snapshot, and I am still waiting for the migration to happen.)

While $CXT price surged up to $0.237 last week, it has since retraced back to $0.14, which was approximately its price before the migration. While there is still some FUD because of ongoing migration teething issues, I believe that once it is settled and with their ongoing developments, Covalent’s CXT price will stabilise at a higher level.

I will be releasing a deep dive report on Covalent soon for those who are interested to find out more about this project!

Yaka Finance

Yaka Finance is positioned as the native liquidity engine of the Sei Network, and operates as a decentralized exchange (DEX) and launchpad, utilizing a ve(3,3) model to optimize liquidity and facilitate trading within the Sei ecosystem.

What’s interesting about Yaka Finance is its integration of Yaka Voyager NFTs into its business model. These NFTs offer minters and stakers a share of the Yaka token airdrop and DEX trading fees, aligning holders with the project's long-term interests.

Currently, Yaka Finance is running an airdrop campaign from July 19, 2024, to August 19, 2024. 8,000,000 points are up for grabs, corresponding to an airdrop of 8,000,000 in $YAKA tokens. The Token Genesis Event (TGE) hasn't occurred yet, so there's no price set for $YAKA.

With Yaka Finance's mainnet launching just a week ago, there's plenty of time to start farming for their airdrop. Participation options include:

1. Zealy Social Quests (20% or 1,600,000 points): Earn points by following partner Twitter accounts. Participants who completed ALL Zealy Social Quests will equally share 1,600,000 points.

2. Trading (10% or 800,000 points): Points allocated based on swap volume. 25,000 points will be allocated daily based on users’ transaction volume (in USD).

3. Liquidity Provision (70% or 5,600,000 points): Earn points by providing liquidity to Yaka Finance. 175,000 points will be allocated daily based on users’ deposit amounts (in USD).

4. NFT Multipliers: Hold Yaka Voyager and partner NFTs for point boosts (for example, 37.5% with one of each). You can get up to 65% boost with 5 Yaka Voyagers; however, I think that would be out of budget for most people.

For more detailed information about their points program, you can check out their medium article here.

(Disclaimer: I’ve bought a couple Yaka Voyager NFTs and Redmilio NFTs a while back too. Currently, the floor price for Yaka voyagers is at 1169 Sei ($463.83) and 87 Sei ($34.52) for Redmilio.)

Ending Thoughts

The crypto landscape continues to evolve rapidly, presenting both challenges and opportunities. As we navigate this dynamic environment, it's crucial to stay informed, diversify wisely, and always conduct thorough research before investing.

I'm excited to continue exploring and sharing insights on promising projects and market trends. Stay tuned for more in-depth analyses, and remember, in the world of crypto, knowledge truly is power.

Thank you for your continued support and engagement.

Ready to ride the next bull-run wave together?

Buckle up and stay tuned!

GM/GN all!

I'm excited to share with you a side project I've been working on for the past several weeks.

I've spent tens of hours over the past several weeks putting together the most comprehensive list of researchers, analysts, and alpha groups from across the web3 space. 

In the fast-paced crypto world, a major part of your success depends heavily on the quality of your research, insights, and alpha sources to sift through all the noise in the space.

While there are multiple threads and posts about who to follow or which groups to join in the Web3 space, I couldn't find a single comprehensive list that provided everything I was looking for.

So, I decided to create the ultimate resource for anyone seeking the best alpha in the Web3 space.

In this Notion database list, I have carefully curated each entry based on criteria such as their quality of work, track record, and recency. The information is then organized into the following columns, which you can filter or sort by:

1. Type: Newsletter, Researcher, YouTube Content Creator, Course Creator, Indie, NFT Group, Group

2. Focus: Trends, DeFi, NFT, Memecoins, Altcoins, AI, RWA, Market Analysis, Portfolio Analysis, General Theory, DePIN, Gaming, Airdrops, SocialFi, Trading, Stablecoins, Data Analytics

3. Blockchains/Projects recently covered: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, Celestia, Cosmos, and more…

4. Content Frequency: Daily, Weekly, Bi-weekly, Varies, Regular, Not enough data

5. Alpha Group: True / False

6. Private / Premium: True / False

7. Cost and Private Group details (if one exists)

8. Link to Website or main channel

9. Links to Newsletter, Twitter, YouTube, and Discord (if they exist)

10. The corresponding number of subscribers and followers for each channel if they exist

Although providing subjective ratings was tempting, I ultimately decided against it, recognizing that individual preferences can differ greatly. As you explore this list, I recommend using your own discernment based on your specific needs 🤓

Compiling this alpha list was no small feat – it required a significant investment of my time and energy over several weeks on top of my full-time job.

As a valued subscriber, I wanted to share this resource with you first. I believe you'll find something of value in this Notion database, whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out. Take a look, save your favorites, and feel free to share your thoughts with me! 💬

If you find this resource valuable in your own crypto journey, I'd be incredibly grateful if you could share it with your network and encourage them to subscribe to my Substack newsletter. Your support fuels my dedication to providing top-notch content! 🙏

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Cheers, and may the alpha be with you! 😄

0xBlockBard 😎

Links:

Notion Alpha List: Ultimate Web3 Alpha List: Top Researchers, Analysts, and Groups

Twitter: https://twitter.com/0xblockbard

Substack: https://www.0xblockbard.com

0xBlockBard

Independent Web3 Researcher. Focusing on deep dive reports, finding early gems, and providing the best alpha.

In this report, we adopt a structured step-by-step approach starting from the overview of the project, its team and roadmap, before diving deeper into the financials and tokenomics. 

We also try to break down difficult concepts or technical jargon into simple and more easily understandable points that would help you in making a more astute investment decision, and ideally, saving you tens of hours in the process of doing your due diligence. 

This report strives to maintain an impartial and balanced yet critical perspective. Some might perceive our analysis as conservative or skeptical, however, this cautious stance is intentional, considering the prevalence of fraud, scams, and rug-pulls in the cryptocurrency space. We believe it's better to err on the side of caution.

Given the dynamic and often volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, it's also important to acknowledge that unforeseen developments or emergent information could significantly impact the relevance of some findings here.

Disclaimer

This report is an independent analysis and has not been sponsored or endorsed by any third party. The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. 

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable; therefore, readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency or company. 

As of the date of publication, the authors and contributors to this report declare that they hold a small position (below $1000 USD) in $PICA tokens as discussed in this report. However, holdings are subject to change at any time without notice. 

The authors and contributors bear no responsibility for any financial losses or damages resulting from the use of information contained within this report.

Outline of Analysis

For our analysis of Picasso ($PICA), we would cover the following topics below in order:

Bear in mind that these scores are purely subjective, and it’s perfectly fine for another person to have contrasting thoughts and opinions. I have also refrained from tallying up all the scores as it is more important to understand each element on its own instead of an aggregate total, which might not accurately reflect the individual significance of each component.

Project

Important Terms

Before we begin proper, there are several important entities and terms within this ecosystem that would be helpful to first understand:

• Composable Cosmos Chain: This is a native chain within the Cosmos ecosystem, specifically designed for interoperability. It connects to the Picasso parachain in the Kusama network via IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication), facilitating seamless asset transfers and cross-chain functionalities.

• Composable Parachain: Residing in the Polkadot ecosystem, the Composable Parachain is built for cross-chain functionality and also utilizes IBC to connect with our Picasso parachain in the Kusama network.

• Picasso: The main focus of our report, Picasso is an infrastructure layer on Kusama aiming for DeFi interoperability. Its native token is $PICA, and it connects to Composable Cosmos and Parachain via IBC.

• Trustless Zone: Trustless Zone is designed to offer secure, automated, and trustless asset transfers between different blockchains.

• Pablo DEX: Pablo serves as a Decentralized Exchange (DEX) and a cross-chain liquidity hub that is part of the Picasso platform. It facilitates secure and efficient trading between various assets.

• Apollo: Picasso’s native Oracle

Overview

Picasso is an infrastructure layer pioneering interoperable DeFi solutions, with its native token $PICA. It is built on the Kusama network, and exists within the wider DotSama ecosystem. Picasso is highly secure, efficient, and natively interoperable due to its use of a parachain, and its proprietary technology stack.

Picasso is a project developed by Composable Finance. Composable Finance is the entity behind the creation and development of the Picasso Parachain (we may use Picasso and Picasso Parachain interchangeably).

In this relationship, Picasso serves as an integral part of Composable Finance's broader vision to innovate in the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) space. 

Specifically, Picasso is designed as an infrastructure layer that contributes to Composable Finance's goal of pioneering interoperable DeFi solutions. It embodies Composable Finance's technological advancements and strategic approach to enhancing DeFi interoperability and functionality within the Kusama and Polkadot ecosystems.

The key functions of Picasso include:

• Interoperability: Enables communication and asset transfers between different blockchain networks within the Kusama and Polkadot ecosystems.

• CosmWasm and IBC Integration: As the only CosmWasm and IBC-enabled parachain, Picasso allows seamless integration with other parachains and Cosmos ecosystem blockchains, fostering novel DeFi strategies.

• Substrate Pallets: Uses Substrate pallets for creating a customisable and efficient DeFi platform, addressing challenges like liquidity fragmentation and cross-chain communication.
  
  Substrate pallets are modular frameworks used in the Substrate development environment. They act as core building blocks for creating blockchains. Pallets are akin to plug-and-play components that can be combined to form a blockchain's runtime environment. Developers can use existing pallets or create new ones to add specific functionalities to their blockchain projects.

• Cross-Chain Smart Contracts: Through Composable’s Virtual Machine (CVM), it supports non-custodial, cross-chain smart contracts, enhancing user experience across different blockchains.

• Security: Benefits from Kusama's shared security model, leveraging the economic security of the Relay Chain's validators.
  
  For further context, in Kusama’s shared security model, individual blockchains (parachains) connect to a central Relay Chain. Parachains lease a connection to the Relay Chain, and during this lease period, they benefit from the security provided by the Relay Chain's validators. This means that the economic security and robustness of the Relay Chain (backed by a large set of validators) are shared across all connected parachains, enhancing the overall security of the network.

Pallets Hosted on Picasso

As described in their medium article, Picasso hosts a robust suite of pallets, each of which has been tailored for use with assets native to different blockchains. These pallets include:

• Cubic — a cross-chain vault standard

• Apollo — an MEV-resistant cross-chain oracle

• Pablo — a DEX that utilizes Cubic to facilitate the trade and LP of tokens originating from different chains

• Angular — a cross-chain money market

• Instrumental — a strategy hub that leverages Picasso to build unique cross-chain strategies

• Centauri — which forms the basis of our 2nd pillar, trustless communication

Current Connections

Picasso is connected and has established interoperability with the following ecosystems below. This means a seamless transfer of data, assets, and smart contract calls between Picasso and the ecosystems listed below:

Project Business Model

The business model of Picasso, and by extension the $PICA token, revolves around creating a cross-chain interoperable platform that facilitates communication and transaction between different blockchain networks, particularly within the Polkadot and Cosmos ecosystems, and potentially Ethereum and Solana. 

Here's a breakdown of the various components within to consider:

1. Interoperability and Infrastructure: Picasso provides a layer for cross-chain interoperability that allows different blockchain networks to interact seamlessly. This infrastructure enables users to transfer assets, information, and value across various blockchains, which is a significant utility in an increasingly multi-chain world.

2. Collator and Validator Rewards: In the Picasso ecosystem, collators and validators are essential for maintaining the network. They are compensated for their services with a percentage of transaction fees, and this mechanism is directly powered by the $PICA token.

3. Oracle Services: With Apollo, Picasso's oracle solution, $PICA is used to stake by those wishing to run oracle nodes. This contributes to the robustness of data feeds that are crucial for various DeFi applications.

4. Gas Fees: $PICA serves as the gas token within the Picasso network, being used to pay for transaction fees and computational services on the network, much like ETH on Ethereum.

5. DEX and Liquidity: $PICA is a primary token for trading pairs on Picasso's native DEX, Pablo. The platform encourages liquidity provision, for which users are rewarded, typically in $PICA tokens.

6. Governance: Token holders use $PICA to participate in governance decisions, influencing the direction and policies of the network. This aligns with the ethos of decentralized networks where stakeholders have a say in governance.

7. Treasury and Ecosystem Development: The treasury, funded by network activities and partly governed by $PICA holders, allocates resources for continuous development, community initiatives, and partnerships.

8. Liquid Staking: By enabling liquid staking of DOT and other assets, Picasso allows users to earn staking rewards while keeping their assets liquid, attracting users who want to earn yields without locking up their capital.

9. Revenue Sharing: Users staking $PICA can earn a share of the revenue generated from cross-chain transfer activities, creating a direct financial incentive to hold and use the token.

10. Expansion of Services: With the planned integration with Ethereum and Solana, Picasso aims to broaden its services, increasing the utility and demand for $PICA across multiple blockchain ecosystems.

The business model of Picasso, leveraging the $PICA token, is designed to capitalise on the growing demand for interoperable blockchain solutions. 

By offering a suite of services that facilitate ease of transactions across chains, incentivizing network participation, and fostering a self-sustaining ecosystem through its governance and treasury systems, Picasso aims to create a robust economic loop that drives the usage and value of the $PICA token.

As the influencer Cryptocito explains, “Picasso is the IBC Hub. It’s an interoperability hub that aims to connect all chains seamlessly and the end game for Picasso is to fully abstract away the hassle of bridging, going back and forth between chains, depositing, withdrawing, all these kinds of things, and just purely focusing on providing the best UX to navigate through the interchange.”

Overall Score - Project

Team

Who’s Behind Picasso and Composable Finance

The Composable Finance and Picasso team consists of approximately 35 individuals, with 20 members dedicated to Engineering, Infrastructure, and Research, while 11 others are focused on Product, Design, Marketing, and Business Development. The remaining four individuals are assigned to Legal, Finance, and HR roles.

Key executive members would include Omar Zaki (Founder & Research Director), Blas Rodriguez Irizar (Co-Founder & CTO), and Miguel Santefé (Co-Founder & Head of Design).

Omar Zaki: Founder & Research Director

Omar is the key executive at the helm of Picasso and Composable Finance, and is described as a seasoned researcher and innovator in the blockchain industry.

He also has quite a checkered past.

In April 2019, the SEC filed a complaint against Omar for “misleading investors in financing an unregistered hedge fund” that he ran as an undergraduate at Yale. According to the SEC, Zaki and his business partner created "investor prospectuses with false trading history, investment returns and management teams.” Subsequently, Omar Zaki paid a $25k fine to settle with the SEC without admitting fault.

In Feb 2022, crypto investigator zachXBT revealed that the anon account 0xbrainjar was Omar Zaki, and had previously been involved with two projects (WARP Finance, Force DAO) with anonymous teams and suffered large hacks, and have not recovered fully since. ZachXbt also accused Zaki of being involved with Bribe Protocol, an alleged rug-pull scam.

In response, however, Omar Zaki published an open letter to the community and admitted his past mistakes. It is worth noting that he also addressed some parts of zachXBT’s thread related to the two projects WARP Finance and Force DAO as misinformation.

In Feb 2023, Zaki was accused by former CTO Karel Kubat of legal improprieties, where Kubat said that “he was resigning because the firm had not provided financial statements to him or the community and because he had no overview of the company’s financial health”. Kubat also claimed that Zaki was related to illegal Series A fundings for the company, in violation of a cease-and-desist mandate from the US SEC. In light of these claims during this period, there were also multiple key team members that quit Composable Finance.

In an AMA (ask-me-anything) session on Twitter spaces, Zaki denied all the allegations against him and the company, and asserted that all the fundraising actions happened in compliance with the law. However, he noted that “since the company is privately held, they are unable to make its financial information publicly available”.

Blas Rodriguez Irizar: Co-Founder & CTO

Blas has 8 years of experience as a Software Engineer, and started his blockchain experience at LayerTwo before moving on to Consensys where he worked on building zk-rollups. In his role at Composable, Blas oversees the Research and Engineering departments with the critical responsibility of creating the technology strategy behind Composable’s products

Miguel Santefé: Co-Founder & Head of Design

Miguel started his career in technology consultancy before founding a creative consultancy company when pursuing his passion for aesthetics and design. He has been in crypto since 2014 and has been designing applications since 2018. Previous to joining Composable, he led the creative strategy at various DeFi projects

Henry Love: Board Member & Executive Director

Henry was the Managing Partner and the Head of US operation for Fundamental Labs, a leading crypto-focused venture fund based in Singapore. Before joining Fundamental Labs, Henry also co-founded a crypto corporate venture studio, YGC, and its spin out company Executive Council Network (ECN). He joined the crypto industry by stepping in as the Chief Investment Officer at a crypto-focused family office who pioneered the industry after leaving Facebook as a top performer in the marketing, e-commerce, & strategy division.

His stated roles would be to oversee the Foundation members, guide the treasury, foster global collaboration, and seek strategic partnerships.

Glassdoor Reviews:

Composable Finance has 5 reviews with an overall score of 3.4/5. Reviews are on the extreme end with three 5-star reviews, one 1-star review, and one 2-star review - the low reviews are from external contractors, while two of the 5-star reviews are from employees, which could reflect the contrast in experiences and reviews.

Here are screenshots of the 5 reviews, in no particular order:

Source: Composable Finance Glassdoor Reviews

Ongoing Issue:

Another serious ongoing issue would be the management of unclaimed $PICA tokens from crowdloan contributors. This situation, mainly attributed to insufficient communication regarding the claim deadline, has left many contributors feeling deprived of their rightful tokens, and robbed even, following a governance decision to allocate these unclaimed assets to the Treasury.

Notably, discussions within Picasso’s OpenGov forum are currently showing a strong consensus in favour of reversing this decision. The team’s response to this controversy is critical, as it may set a precedent for ethical practices and community relations. 

How the team resolves this issue could significantly impact Picasso's standing and trust within the community. A resolution that aligns with the interests and sentiments of the community could greatly reinforce the team's dedication to its stakeholders and underpin the project's integrity and prospects.

Overall:

As the principal leader of Composable Finance, our attention must be significantly directed towards CEO Omar Zaki. His history presents a complex picture; he has previously encountered issues with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and has been connected with controversial projects like Bribe Protocol.

However, it's important to note that there is also no definitive proof linking him to the gravest accusations, such as his exact role in Bribe Protocol and whether the other projects that failed were more than simply bad mismanagement. A potentially more pressing concern would be his ethical conduct and the apparent lack of financial transparency within the organization. This issue was significant enough to prompt the departure of key team members including the former CTO Karel Kebab.

It is a positive sign, however, that Omar Zaki has proactively addressed the above-mentioned points and allegations in a head-on manner in a public setting (a letter to the community, and Twitter spaces), and significant progress and developments has been made for PICA and Composable Finance since then. 

In summary, while these issues do not necessarily raise immediate red flags, they do merit careful monitoring. They represent 'grey flags' - areas of concern that would change depending on any future financial imprudences or team-related issues. 

Overall Score - Team

Financials and Metrics

Here we’ll take a closer look at the metrics and financials of the $PICA token, based on data from CoinGecko.

What do the numbers mean?

At first glance, the market cap to FDV ratio is reasonable at 0.383 (i.e. market cap is ~38.3% of FDV), indicating that there is still room for growth as more tokens enter circulation, assuming the market price remain stable or increases.

It is worth noting at this point that the team’s self-reported circulating supply of 3.83B tokens does not seem to match with the token distribution schedule (shown below) that indicates about ~53% should be in circulation now. 

This difference could possibly be explained if the tokens allocated to the other areas, such as the Treasury or Liquidity Mining, are not taken into consideration into the circulating supply. It could also be that not all the crowdloan tokens have been claimed, from what we observed in the governance forum as mentioned above. However, this is something that we would need to further clarify with the team. 

Overall, the financials and metrics are fairly healthy, and the trading volume indicates liquidity and investor interest, which is positive for market dynamics. The capped supply is also favourable for value retention, assuming demand grows as the network develops.

Overall Score - Financials and Metrics

Roadmap

In the most recent published Medium article, the Picasso team highlights that they are preparing to enable IBC connections to the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems, two pivotal events that could transform the existing interoperability landscape.

The team is confident that once connected, there will be significantly greater utility and value to the $PICA token as it is the underlying token powering the ecosystem.

The article also highlights two new partnerships, namely with:

1. DAO5: an experimental cryptocurrency investment fund with the primary goal of empowering its portfolio founders to co-manage a treasury of strategic assets. It will be converted into a DAO in future. Notable advisors include Emin Gün Sirer (Founder and CEO of AVA Labs) and Meltem Demirors (CSO of CoinShares). 

2. Santiago Santos: Santiago R. Santos is a prominent figure in both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency sector, known for his extensive experience in investments and strategic roles in various investment firms. He also co-hosts The Empire Podcast alongside Blockworks founder Jason Yanowitz, further contributing to his influential presence in the space.

It is also mentioned in the team’s Medium Post: Year in Review that they will be gearing up for the launch of MANTIS - Multichain Agnostic Normalised Trust-minimized Intent Settlement, an ecosystem-agnostic framework designed for intent settlement across chains.

Beyond this, however, the team does not provide further details or plans after the enabling of IBC connections to the Ethereum and Solana ecosystem. Much of the future success of the $PICA token will hinge on the successful integration and IBC connection with the Ethereum and Solana ecosystem, and perhaps with other blockchains thereafter as well. 

Overall, while the Picasso team's roadmap exhibits ambitious and strategic expansion plans, along with noteworthy partnerships, it also faces challenges in terms of execution complexity and dependency on external ecosystems.

Overall Score - Roadmap

Supply Tokenomics

In Supply Tokenomics, we analyse what affects the supply of $PICA tokens, such as the allocations to teams and insiders (advisors, VCs etc), as well as the locking and vesting schedules. 

The breakdown of tokens are as follows:

• Relatively high max supply of 10B with no token inflation

• Founders and Team: 13.65% allocated to founders, early team members, and current contributors, with a 2-year vesting schedule and a 6-month lock.

• Key Partners & Advisors: 6.35% with similar vesting term (2-year vesting schedule and a 6-month lock)

• Treasury: Approximately 18% for long-term sustainability, governed by the Picasso General Council and later by PICA token holders. 2% is reserved for future personnel incentives, and will be subject to a 4-year vesting schedule from network launch or grant date with a 1-year cliff.

• Crowdloan: 30% allocated to crowdloan stakers for parachain lease slots. Crowdloan stakers received 50% upon TGE (Token Genesis Event), and the remainder will be released linearly within 48 weeks (approximately 1 year).

• Ecosystem Incentives: 10% for protocol rewards and incentives. These are programmatic incentives to bootstrap network growth such as running an oracle on Apollo.

• Series A Token Purchasers: 7% with a 3-month lock-up and 2-year vesting

• Liquidity Programs: 15% for liquidity program participants on Picasso.

Token Distribution

Currently, over 50% of tokens have been distributed (see graph below), with crowdloan stakers fully receiving all of their allocated $PICA (30% of total supply) by now. 

Based on the token distribution schedule, it is projected that approximately 70% of the total supply will be distributed by July 2024, increasing to about 80% by Jan 2025 next year.

One important point to note is that the high token supply of 10 billion PICA tokens might limit the potential for significant individual token value appreciation. Conversely, this larger supply also helps to keep the current token price lower, potentially making it more attractive and accessible to new investors, which could, in turn, stimulate demand for the tokens.

The distribution schedule supports gradual market absorption, with modest selling pressure from vested tokens belonging to the team, Series A purchasers, and liquidity mining recipients.

Overall, the tokenomics allocation for PICA appears fairly robust with a balanced approach towards long-term stability and immediate ecosystem growth. There are sufficient incentives for insiders (founders, teams, and partners) and for broader community engagement and network development.

Overall Score - Supply Tokenomics

Demand Tokenomics

In Demand Tokenomics, we analyse what affects the demand for $PICA tokens - the more positive factors that increase demand, the greater the potential price in future.

There are multiple use-cases for $PICA, ranging from staking and receiving yield, to being the gas token for CosmWasm dApps deployed on Picasso, to being the primary pairing on the Pablo DEX, and lastly to governance in Picasso’s OpenGov.

For staking and receiving yield, there are several avenues that can be utilized to earn yield in $PICA, namely:

1. Collator Staking on Picasso: 25% of fees on Picasso are distributed to collators, with the remaining 75% going directly to the community-governed treasury. Collators on Picasso are required to put down a stake to produce blocks on our parachain, as with most proof of stake networks.

2. Apollo Staking: Apollo is a permissionless, MEV-resistant oracle solution. Anyone can run an oracle node on Picasso by providing a PICA stake.

3. Validator Staking: PICA is also used to secure the Composable Cosmos chain. This is the first instance of a token being utilized for validation within both the Kusama and Cosmos ecosystems and highlights the critical role PICA plays within cross-ecosystem communication. The Delegation Program sources 1bn $PICA tokens (10% of max supply) from the Picasso Treasury to validators to ensure a robust and secure network while providing a ~10% APR in PICA. Take note that there is a 21-day “unbonding” period after unstaking from a validator before you receive your PICA tokens back.

4. Liquid Staking: Liquid Staked DOT (lsDOT) is Composable's solution to the liquidity challenges in traditional staking within the Polkadot ecosystem. Recently released on 5 Jan 2024, lsDOT offers holders the ability to maintain staking benefits while still having access to liquidity.  Any subsequent revenue will flow to $PICA, providing yield emissions from liquid staking, but only while stakings are locked. This initiative enhances utility and flexibility, not just in Polkadot but across various ecosystems via Picasso and the Composable Restaking Layer.
   
   Users can stake DOT on trustless.zone for a current APY of ~15.89%, and can subsequently supply it as liquidity in a lsDOT/DOT pool on Pablo for additional pool incentives.
   
   Future plans include using lsDOT for securing Composable’s ecosystem and expanding its utility across different networks.

   

5. Bridge Revenue Share: Users would also be able to stake $PICA tokens on trustless.zone and earn a proportional share of revenue generated through cross-ecosystem transfers.  The current APY is ~8.08% as shown above.
   
   A tiered reward system will benefit long-term stakers, with those staking for 90 days or more receiving a larger portion of the 20% bridge revenue allocated to PICA stakers.
   
   Currently, Composable ranks 15th in IBC volume over the past 30 days, with significant transaction volumes. The anticipated expansion of IBC to Solana and Ethereum could further boost activity on Composable Finance.

   

   

6. Governance: Recently in early December 2023, Picasso entered its OpenGov Phase2, where $PICA token holders are empowered to determine core decisions through on-chain voting. 

   
   Holders can propose various initiatives, from technical enhancements to marketing and community growth strategies. Proposals require a 'Decision Deposit,' varying by governance track, to demonstrate the proposer's commitment. 
   

   Any holder with enough tokens for this deposit can suggest a referendum. Prior to formal submission, it is advised by the team to discuss the proposal on the dedicated governance forum for five days, fostering community engagement and feedback.

Overall Score - Demand Tokenomics

Influencers

From a casual look at the people who mention $PICA or Composable Finance on Crypto twitter, it appears that most tweets originate from individuals in the Cosmos ecosystem.

Some of the more notable influencers I’ve come across that is bullish on $PICA would be CosmosHOSS with 54.6k followers, and Cryptocito with 94.9k followers on Twitter and 44.9k subscribers on YouTube.

However, it also seems that $PICA and Composable Finance have limited reach among the main Ethereum and Solana crypto communities. It will be worth observing the impact of the Solana restaking initiative via Picasso, and if the team is able to capture the attention of Solana DeFi users. 

Overall Score - Influencers

Final Thoughts

Picasso and Composable Finance present themselves as robust entities with years of operation and the ambitious aspiration to become the IBC Hub that connects all chains seamlessly - a goal that if successful could potentially transform the way that users interact with crypto by lowering the barriers to entry to connected blockchains.

Overall, the business model, financials, and tokenomics of Picasso and the $PICA token suggest a well-conceived strategic approach to their implementation. However, the Founder, Omar Zaki, is associated with controversies that cast a shadow over the project. Additionally, the issue of unclaimed tokens being revoked from inactive crowdloan contributors through a governance proposal without adequate notice raises concerns about ethical and community relations.

The team's handling of these sensitive issues will be critical in determining the project's reputation and future. A fair and positive resolution to the governance matter would reflect the team's commitment to its community, which is essential for long-term trust and success.

From a broader perspective, if the next few years see a bull-run and heightened general interest in crypto, Picasso and the $PICA token could find themselves in a highly advantageous position. As a central access point for new entrants to navigate through major networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos, Picasso could capture a significant market opportunity.

Future Flags to Keep Track Of

We have noted a quick list of green flags (positive indicators) and red flags (negative indicators) as a quick heuristic to gauge how well the project will do in future.

The more green flags observed in the future, the more bullish you can be for the project, and vice versa.

Green Flags (Positive Indicators) to keep track of:

• Successful IBC connection with Ethereum (mainnet) and Solana

• Mentions of the project by key influencers who normally focus on other chains (Ethereum/Solana etc)

• Active governance participation from $PICA holders in governance decisions that would suggest a committed and active community.

• Positive resolution of governance proposal to extend the claim period of $PICA tokens

Red Flags (Negative Indicators) to watch out for:

• Any financial imprudences or team conflicts which would further reinforce the negative controversies that happened in the past

• Any negative community sentiment in the governance forums or social media channels such as Twitter and Discord

• Poor governance outcomes which may indicate centralization of decision-making power, or low participation in the governance process which might suggest a disengaged community

• Any delays to the roadmap execution, in particular the IBC connections with Ethereum (mainnet) and Solana

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In this report, we adopt a structured step-by-step approach starting from the overview of the project, its team and roadmap, before diving deeper into the financials and tokenomics. 

We also try to break down difficult concepts or technical jargon into simple and more easily understandable points that would help you in making a more astute investment decision, and ideally, saving you tens of hours in the process of doing your due diligence. 

This report strives to maintain an impartial and balanced yet critical perspective. Some might perceive our analysis as conservative or skeptical, however, this cautious stance is intentional, considering the prevalence of fraud, scams, and rug-pulls in the cryptocurrency space. We believe it's better to err on the side of caution.

Given the dynamic and often volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, it's also important to acknowledge that unforeseen developments or emergent information could significantly impact the relevance of some findings here.

Disclaimer

This report is an independent analysis and has not been sponsored or endorsed by any third party. The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. 

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable; therefore, readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 

The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency or company. 

As of the date of publication, the authors and contributors to this report declare that they do not hold any positions in $OLAS tokens or any other cryptocurrencies discussed in this report. However, holdings are subject to change at any time without notice. 

The authors and contributors bear no responsibility for any financial losses or damages resulting from the use of information contained within this report.

Outline of Analysis

For our analysis of the OLAS Network, we would cover the following topics below in order:

Bear in mind that these scores are purely subjective, and it’s perfectly fine for another person to have contrasting thoughts and opinions. I have also refrained from tallying up all the scores as it is more important to understand each element on its own instead of an aggregate total, which might not accurately reflect the individual significance of each component.

Project

Important Terms

Before we begin proper, there are several important entities and terms within this ecosystem that would be helpful to first understand:

1. The Autonolas Protocol: A collection of smart contracts that implements a mechanism to coordinate, secure, and manage software code on a public blockchain (currently Ethereum, Polygon, Gnosis Chain, and Solana), and provides incentives to developers proportional to their contribution to the growth of the protocol. The main website is https://autonolas.network. The Autonolas Protocol may also be referred to as the OLAS Protocol.

2. The Autonolas DAO: The Autonolas DAO is made up of holders of veOLAS (locked OLAS), and governs or steers the Autonolas Protocol, and is also referred to as the OLAS Network. The DAO governance’s authority includes whitelisting of LP tokens for bonding, changing of parameters in the smart contracts, and allocation of grants from the Autonolas Treasury among others. The main website is https://olas.network and is distinct from the protocol’s website above.

3. $OLAS Token: The token follows the ERC-20  standard and is deployed on the Ethereum mainnet. It has an inflationary token model to account for bonding incentives and Olas component/agent top-ups (which can essentially be understood as developer incentives to build on Autonolas).

4. Bonding: The bonding mechanism is an important part of Autonolas Tokenomics and is modelled after Olympus DAO v1 with some differences. The concept of bonding is basically for users to acquire a protocol’s tokens at a discount by providing liquidity. This supports the project with a deeper liquidity pool, while supporters are able to acquire tokens at a cheaper price. 

On top of the bonding mechanism, the Autonolas team implemented a control mechanism to ensure that the growth of protocol-owned liquidity is proportional to the growth of components/agents’ usefulness. This control mechanism is enforced by several built-in on-chain metrics which are used to estimate the potential for the production of code.  

Overview

The Autonolas DAO, also known as the OLAS Network, is designed to foster the development and operation of autonomous applications. 

These autonomous applications are primarily off-chain but secured on-chain, and are characterised by their ability to run continuously, act independently, interact with the world beyond blockchains, execute complex logic, are composable and crypto-native (decentralized, trust-minimised, transparent and robust).

The OLAS Network is built on their autonomous agent technology, namely the Open Autonomy Framework, which is a framework for the creation of agent services - “off-chain autonomous services which run as a Multi-Agent-System (MAS) and offer enhanced functionalities on-chain”.

Agent services can execute arbitrary operations in a decentralised way, are trust-minimised, transparent, and robust. Agent services remove the need of strong trust assumptions that traditional centralized off-chain services require. 

Within their documentation, the OLAS Network highlights several potential use-cases for agent services that could be implemented in future:

Internal DAO Operations:

• Meta Yield Hunter: Use machine learning to track yield opportunities across chains and protocols. Autonomously move positions to optimize yield.

• Asset Whitelisting: Dynamically evaluates assets based on diverse datasets to add and remove from whitelists.

• Contribution Coordinator: Watch for contributions on GitHub, Twitter etc and adjust on-chain rewards & permissions accordingly.

Miscellaneous Services: 

• Web3-native Recommender: Build the first co-owned and operated engines to track opportunities and make personalized recommendations to crypto users.

• NFT Collector: Allow users to passively build exposure to quality baskets of NFTs.

• Fund Manager: Overcome the legal and trust challenges of running a decentralized fund.

Customisable app infrastructure:

• Oracles (On-chain Data Reporter): Build future-proof oracles that are totally customisable, without permission, and owned by you.

• Keepers: Build robust keeper systems that you can extend to maintain any on-chain data, based on a rich set of criteria which you define

• Bridges (Cross-chain Messenger): Spin up your own bridges to sync any type of data across chains and infrastructure. Combine with your oracles and keepers to build rich new services.

The OLAS Network aims to transform linear component, agent, and service growth into exponential application opportunities, going beyond traditional software framework architectures by allowing developers to encapsulate business logic into software components​​. 

This approach positions the OLAS Network as a significant player in the field of autonomous applications, particularly within the crypto space.

Protocol Business Model

The Autonolas Protocol's business model aims to reward capital and code contributions through the issuance of newly-minted OLAS tokens. The protocol anticipates generating profits to fund ecosystem initiatives, such as grants, from three main sources:

1. Autonolas Protocol-owned Services (PoSe): The protocol governs services that generate profits, which are then donated back to the protocol. A portion of these donations, excluding those returned to component/agent developers, are retained by the treasury.

2. Protocol-owned Liquidity (PoL): This includes funds deployed to third-party protocols for activities like providing liquidity in decentralized exchanges or invested in Protocol-owned Services. All profits from PoL activities are owned by the treasury.

3. Third-party Services: A smaller portion of the protocol's profits is expected to come from the treasury's share of voluntary donations from third-party services.

The key to the success of the OLAS Network hinges on the creation of numerous agent services that add substantial value. A significant advantage of this model is the minimal maintenance costs associated with software or code. 

Additionally, the network benefits from low marginal costs coupled with the potential for exponential returns, especially when these services are implemented across a diverse range of decentralized applications (dApps) and blockchains.

Overall Score - Project

Team

Founding Team of the DAO

From the OLAS Network FAQ, it is stated that the OLAS DAO was founded in 2022 with ~50 participants, and all the founding members paid their share of the costs (in total it was in the order of tens of thousands of dollars. However at present, not much is known about who these 50 participants are. This is important information as 32.65% of OLAS tokens are distributed to founding members of the DAO.

We also know that the launch of Autonolas DAO was led by Valory AG (which itself was formed around mid-2021) with the help of $4 million in seed funding around mid-October 2022.

The funding round was led by True Ventures with participation from Signature Ventures, Semantic Ventures, Prime Block Ventures, Proof Group, and Atka. 

It is unclear if these VC groups have any share of the OLAS tokens distribution at the moment.

Valory AG

Based in Zug, Switzerland, the Valory team describes themselves as a team of scientists, engineers, and creatives who seek to deliver world architecture autonomy development at multi-agent services. The company was founded by David Minarsch (CEO) and David Galindo (CTO). 

David Minarsch (CEO) has a background in leading the team which built the first framework for developing Multi-Agent Services (MAS) in the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) space. He has prior experience via Entrepreneur First and a PhD in Applied Game Theory from the University of Cambridge.

From the Valory website as well, David Galindo (CTO) previously served as an Associate Professor of Computer Security at the University of Birmingham, and is a renowned scientist in the field of cryptography with over 15 years of experience in computer security.

Both co-founders have strong and robust LinkedIn profiles with over 500 followers each, which supports their credibility and stated backgrounds on the Valory website. 

The Valory website also lists Oaksprout The Tan as another co-founder (CPO), with his name likely a pseudonym. He is described to have made significant contributions to a number of crypto-network communities by developing well-used ecosystem tools, education sites, and community building efforts.

There are a total of 16 people in the Valory team (including the three co-founders), with a good mix of roles between smart contract development, frontend, cryptography, operations, and community management. 

There are also no Glassdoor reviews or Google reviews of the Valory AG company at present. No advisors of the team have been listed. 

Overall Score - Team

Financials and Metrics

Here we’ll take a closer look at the metrics and financials of the $OLAS token (for clarification, text in blue are added/calculated by us based on the underlying source data):

Note: Data is correct as of Wednesday, 13 December, 2023, 09:00 ET

What do the numbers mean?

Firstly, we note that coingecko and coinmarketcap both seem to use the total supply metric of 536m tokens. However, in keeping to the definition of Fully Diluted Valuation which should be based on the theoretical maximum total supply of tokens, we used the max total supply of tokens as stated in the whitepaper (it is capped at 1B for the first 10 years and 2% maximum total inflation per annum thereafter, subjected to change from governance). For simplicity sake, we use the value of 1B for the calculation of our FDV value.

At first glance, the market cap to FDV ratio is pretty low at 0.052 (i.e. market cap is ~5.2% of FDV), indicating that while there is room for the project to grow, there is still a considerable amount of tokens not in circulation. 

Once these tokens enter the market (depending on their vesting/unlocking schedules which we will investigate further below), they could potentially dilute the value or imply significant growth potential of the token.

Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is the theoretical market cap of a coin if its max supply is in circulation, and is calculated at current price x total max supply. This gives investors a view of what the total value of the project could be if the market conditions remain constant and all the tokens are released.

24hr Trading Volume

There is currently healthy trading volume of the $OLAS tokens, at approximately 2% of the market cap. This indicates a liquid market and active trading interest (though for our investment, we have to consider if this is mostly from recent hype and speculation, and if the trading volume will dip down after some time). 

Circulating Supply

At present, more than half of the $OLAS tokens (i.e. 53.6% - calculated from total supply / max supply) have been released into the market in some form, although the circulating supply is significantly lower at 9.66% of total supply (536m), and 5.2% of theoretical max supply (1B).

The lower the circulating supply relative to total supply, the more susceptible it could be to price shocks from an influx of supply (e.g. tokens vested/unlocked). 

veOLAS (locked $OLAS)

On the other hand, some promising signs are that the percentage of locked $OLAS (veOLAS) is significantly high at 34.83%, which represents that a large majority of token holders believe in the project.

Token contract for veOLAS: https://etherscan.io/token/0x7e01a500805f8a52fad229b3015ad130a332b7b3

DAO Treasury

Also, the tokens allocated to the DAO Treasury at 100m (18.63%) seem to be untouched at present, and is most likely set aside to fund future development projects or ecosystem grants. 

Team

For the tokens allocated to the Valory team (at 19.51%), while it is fairly significant we can also argue that it represents a healthy stake and financial incentive for them to lead the Autonolas ecosystem and OLAS Network to success. 

buOLAS (burnable $OLAS)

Burnable OLAS (buOLAS) are tokens connected to team vesting for the founding DAO members; the majority of which is set to unlock in mid-to-late 2026. It is also governed by the DAO holders of veOLAS who can decide to burn tokens of team members who are deemed as no longer contributing.

Token contract for buOLAS: https://etherscan.io/token/0xb09ccf0dbf0c178806aaee28956c74bd66d21f73

Adjustments

One point to note is that the present circulating supply percentage and locked percentage would be higher if we adjust for the total supply by removing  from calculation the buOLAS tokens (which are locked and vested over time until 2026), DAO Treasury tokens, and locked Valory team tokens.

After removing the locked tokens from the calculation, we see that the locked $OLAS (veOLAS) percentage and estimated circulating supply percentage are healthier at 69% and 19% respectively. 

One caveat to consider is that veOLAS may be locked in weeks, up to a maximum of 4 years (we will cover the distribution of the unlocking schedule in the Supply Tokenomics section below). This would be important for you to consider as it would add to increased selling pressure at the times when significant number of tokens are unlocked.

Protocol Metrics

On the relevant protocol metrics side, we use the number of services, agents, and components as an indicator of developer activity on the protocol - which fundamentally is one of the most important metrics since it represents a direct use-case (and usefulness) of the OLAS Network.

Another important metric to consider would be the revenue created by the various autonomous services for the protocol - in the whitepaper, this is described as “donations” which may arise from Autonolas PoSes (services owned/managed by the Autonolas DAO, and third-party PoSes - managed by third-party DAOs).

Based on data from Dune, the total donations received by services is at 12.65 ETH (or $28421 USD at 11 Dec Price - $2,246 USD to 1 ETH), which does not  seem to be very impressive at the moment relative to their market cap. 

A positive perspective to have would be that this is still in the very early stages, and the number of services, agents, and components are still increasing.

With more services, agents, and components over time, the total amount of donations is expected to increase. 

However, one caveat is that either the total number of services/agents or the usefulness/value-add of present/ services/agents would have to increase almost exponentially to represent a more healthy proportion of the protocol’s market cap. 

Overall Score - Financials and Metrics

Builders

Referencing the OLAS Network registry, there are a total of 165 components, 24 agents, and 20 services on the Ethereum mainnet. 

Taking a closer look at these services include “a set of agents implementing  the El Collectooorr” (Service ID 1)

 and “a set of agents implementing the Autonomous Fund” (Service ID 2).

However, it is not immediately apparent what these services do (and similarly for components and agents), or how they contribute to the wider ecosystem. It will be useful if there is more information for each of these various parts that is structured and neatly organised. 

Autonolas Academy

The Autonolas Protocol also has a cohort-based training program called the Autonolas Academy which teaches developers how to build and run autonomous services. It runs for 4 weeks with a time commitment of 2hours per week for coaching sessions and time to build.

Thus far, there are a total of 4 cohorts, with the first cohort having graduated on 16 Feb 2022, and one ongoing cohort. 

Across the four cohorts, there were 17 participants, but seven did not finish the academy training program, a figure that might initially appear underwhelming. 

However, the low turnout could be due to the requirement of specific technical skills and knowledge and the availability of open video recordings of past cohorts

Website Documentation and Guides

Overall, the documentation and guides on how to get started building on Autonolas using the Open Autonomy Framework are fairly robust and well-organised. 

However, the barrier to entry for new developers remains high due to the steep learning curve and complexity involved for developers in learning how to set up agent services of their own. 

Much of the future success of the Autonolas Protocol, OLAS Network, and corresponding $OLAS Token will depend on how many new developers the team will attract and how many new value-adding agent services will be created. 

Added (18 Dec): Increased score from 6/10 to 7/10

Notably, many projects using the Autonolas stack for autonomous agent services have emerged as winners in various hackathons.

Highlights include:

1. Faucetation Station: a community-owned, bot-resistant faucet service for blockchain developers, which was the winner of “Filecoin & IPFS - Best Use” and the “Scroll - Pool Prize” awards in ETH Online 2023

2. Collateralisation Station: A solution offering trustless liquidity for autonomous agent service NFTs, securing second place in the “1Inch Network - Open Track” and “Neon EVM - Best Neon EVM use case 4th place” awards at ETHGlobal Istanbul 2023

3. Decentr-API: An autonomous decentralized load balancing for web3 transactions, which grabbed the Skale Grand Prize and several other awards, including “Skale - Partner Integration”, “Skale - Pool Prize”, and “Gnosis Safe — Best Novel Implementation of a Safe” at ETH Amsterdam 2022.

4. Plantation Station: A decentralized agent service that monitors, manages and optimizes the yield of plants and vegetables, awarded the “Sustainability & Urbanism Award” and three additional prizes at ETH Prague 2023.

   

Seeing many developers use the Autonolas stack for projects and win hackathons is a promising sign. It shows that the tech stack is useful, and this will lead to an increasing number of builders utilising it. These wins at hackathons are a great signal that autonomous agent services have real solutions for real problems.

Credit to 8Baller who shared these projects with me in the discord server

Overall Score - Builders

Roadmap

The OLAS Network has two proposals currently in their roadmap, namely: 

1. Build-A-PoSe: Proposed on October 13, 2023 and currently WIP (Work-in-progress), this proposal suggests implementing a structured programme operated by the DAO to consistently deliver new OLAS-owned services.
   
   Build-A-PoSe will utilise the existing protocol-owned services (PoSe) and dev rewards mechanism built into the Autonolas Protocol, to 1) coordinate developers in the OLAS DAO to build components for new PoSes, and 2) to coordinate OLAS DAO members to shepherd the development and distribution of new PoSes.

2. Triple Lock: Proposed on August 15, 2023 and currently approved, this proposal suggests making an upgrade to the protocol that improves bonding, dev rewards, and staking. Triple Lock will create and reinforce token sinks for the $OLAS token.
   
   Furthermore, the proposal suggests a bonding strategy whereby the DAO creates bonding products for LP assets which pair $OLAS with the native token for each chain on which the Autonolas Protocol is deployed.

The latest proposal Build-A-Pose aims to tackle the above-mentioned problems of attracting new developers into the ecosystem and increase the number of agents and services built on the protocol, which is a step in the  right direction

However, more information on the Valory team’s direction for the Autonolas Protocol and DAO does not seem readily available. There also seems to be no information on how the Treasury DAO tokens are intended to be used, which could be a powerful incentive to provide grants and funding to attract new developers. 

Although not yet officially verified, the list of repositories in the Valory GitHub includes one that suggests the development of contracts on Solana (refer to Appendix B). This indication, if substantiated, could positively influence the overall protocol and price movement.

On getting the $OLAS token listed on a CEX, the team has said (in discord) there is no imminent plans, and the DAO’s focus is on the decentralised approach of growing liquidity via bonding.

Added (18 Dec): Increased score from 6/10 to 6.5/10

The team is also implementing a step-by-step structured plan, referred to as OLAS Staker Expeditions, to introduce staking to the OLAS Network. This plan is divided into three phases, each designed to progressively roll out and refine the staking mechanism, ultimately adding more utility and demand for the $OLAS token

.

Currently in its initial phase, Phase 1: Everest, the pilot stage is limited to just 10 slots, reserved for the most active members of the community. This limited launch allows for focused testing and feedback.

The next phase, Alpine, will broaden participation to 50 slots. This expansion aims to further shape and improve the staking process, including the rewards mechanism, based on the insights gathered from the first phase.

The last phase, Coastal, will open up 100 slots for participants. This final phase is intended as the concluding round of testing and fine-tuning, setting the stage for the full public release of the staking feature to all OLAS users.

Overall Score - Roadmap

Supply Tokenomics

In Supply Tokenomics, we analyse what affects the supply of $OLAS tokens, such as the allocations to teams and insiders (advisors, VCs etc), as well as the locking and vesting schedules. 

OLAS Tokenomics are inflationary and is designed to attract more capital and developers into a virtuous flywheel, in turn increasing the number of autonomous applications.

The breakdown of tokens are as follows:

• max supply of 1B for the first ten years, and 2% token inflation per annum thereafter

• 32.65% distributed to founding members of the OLAS DAO 

• 10% distributed to Valory AG to maintain, run, and further the Autonolas Protocol 

• 10% distributed to the Autonolas DAO Treasury (which seem to be untouched at the moment as referenced in our Financials section)

• 47.35% to incentivize developers’ top-ups for useful code and bonders, autonomously provisioned by the protocol over the initial ten years 

The protocol aims for an S-shaped curve of token emissions:

The allocation of tokens in this project is notably divided, with a substantial 42.65% designated for insiders (team and founding members), and a nearly equal 47.35% earmarked for developer incentives and bonders (public). 

The proportion allocated to the founding team members and investors can be seen as reasonable, depending on one's viewpoint, especially considering their initial financial contribution to kickstart the project.

Currently, in our Financials section, the key metrics to focus on are the 186 million locked tokens (veOLAS) and the team burnable buOLAS tokens.

Unlocking schedule of veOLAS (locked OLAS)

There is a gradual increase in unlocked veOLAS over time. The most significant times when a large number of veOLAS will be unlocked is 

• 11th and 18th July 2024

• 10th and 17th July 2025

• 9th July 2026 (largest spike)

Unlocking schedule of buOLAS

For team members buOLAS, the unlocking schedule is fairly regular, occurring at the same time period every year. The most substantial releases for buOLAS are slated for:

• 14th and 15th July 2024

• 14th and 15th July 2025

• 14th and 15th July 2026

Around these specific periods, particularly in July of each year, there is a possibility of increased market liquidity of $OLAS tokens, potentially leading to heightened selling activity.

Overall, this unlocking schedules for veOLAS and buOLAS is a good indicator for investors as most of the tokens are locked for an extended duration, which  signifies a longer-term commitment from stakeholders to the project’s success and correspondingly, lower selling pressure on $OLAS tokens.

Overall Score - Supply Tokenomics

Demand Tokenomics

In Demand Tokenomics, we analyse what affects the demand for $OLAS tokens - the more positive factors that increase demand, the greater the potential price in future.

On its own, the $OLAS token does not have any direct benefits for investors . It basically has two main purposes: i) locking it for veOLAS and ii) using it to acquire LP-tokens to participate in the bonding mechanism to obtain OLAS at a discount. 

While this benefits the protocol by making it more robust with additional liquidity, investors will face increased opportunity costs as they have to lock their funds in the project instead of being able to deploy it elsewhere. 

After locking the $OLAS token for veOLAS, investors will be able to participate in the Autonolas DAO governance and influence the protocol and its tokenomics. In future, veOLAS holders will be able to participate in protocol governance off-chain and form subDAOs to enrich on-chain contribution metrics.

There are also no indications at present on whether the DAO may consider using revenue to buy back tokens, albeit this could be submitted as a governance proposal in the future.

Overall, the demand tokenomics of the $OLAS token are designed by the team with a long-term perspective, prioritising protocol liquidity robustness, stakeholder alignment, and governance participation over immediate financial returns.

For investors, if you believe that the project will do well in future and wish to be an active member, you can lock the $OLAS token and participate in governance. 

On the other hand, if you are more price-sensitive, you may want to consider not locking your tokens and instead, wait for the opportune time to get a decent return from your investments - one caveat being that your emotions will be subject to the volatility of the market.

Added (18 Dec):

With a future addition of an $OLAS staking mechanism, it is likely that there may be increased demand for $OLAS tokens in the lead-up to the final rollout. Further details about the specifics of the staking mechanism remain limited at this stage.

However, it's plausible that staking rewards could be in the form of extra $OLAS tokens potentially through minting (which would also impact the supply tokenomics as well). It could also be interesting to consider the prospect of real yield from the fees generated by autonomous agents being distributed to stakeholders in future.

Overall Score - Demand Tokenomics

Influencers

One of the first major influencers to talk about $OLAS would notably be Chicken Genius (@pakpakgenius) in the following tweet below on Nov 8, 2023 where $OLAS was noticeably the top asset with the highest USD value at $129k:

Below are some of his other tweets talking about $OLAS as well:

Dec 5, 2023

Sentiments-wise, we can see Chicken Genius is extremely bullish on $OLAS, however we have to balance it with the fact that he has a huge bag of $OLAS worth $715k USD (after it ~6x from Nov 8) at the time of writing, so there will obviously be some bias present.  

Looking at the content of the more recent tweet, on the use-cases of AI agents, we are more conservative and think that while it may be possible in the future to achieve the things he mentioned, the current state of the OLAS DAO still has many things to improve on - such as attracting more developers, building more service agents, and increasing the protocol revenue (or donations as referenced in the whitepaper). 

Other notable influencers that have talked about $OLAS include:

0xReflection: https://twitter.com/0xReflection/status/1733964598905364745

 and cyrilXbt: https://twitter.com/cyrilXBT/status/1734318852383600905

Overall Score - Influencers

Final Thoughts

The OLAS Network is a robust and well-thought-out project with strong fundamentals and a self-developed framework - the Open Autonomy Framework used to develop multi-agent systems.

Autonomous agents can be game changers in the web3 space due to their ability to integrate off-chain and on-chain in a decentralised, transparent, and almost trustless way.

While the potential returns can be exponential, the team will face the uphill challenge of attracting new developers into the ecosystem and reducing the barriers to adoption by other dApps, developers, and projects.

On token distribution, while the team and insiders have a significant amount allocated to them, most of these tokens will be unlocked and released over several years. The long locking schedule also helps align incentives with the project's success in the long run.

One limitation is that the real demand for $OLAS tokens on their own appears modest, with their primary uses being limited to locking for governance participation or engaging in the bonding mechanism. This creates a dilemma for investors, highlighting the opportunity cost of immobilising liquidity that could potentially be allocated to other projects.

With the anticipated rise of AI-driven narratives within the web3 and cryptocurrency sectors in the next bull run in 2024, the OLAS Network seems strategically positioned to capitalise on the upcoming wave.

Overall, my conviction leans towards the OLAS Network as a worthy investment prospect, given its considerable promise and future potential.

Future Flags to Keep Track Of

We have noted a quick list of green flags (positive indicators) and red flags (negative indicators) as a quick heuristic to gauge how well OLAS Network will do in future.

The more green flags observed in the future, the more bullish you can be for OLAS Network, and vice versa.

Green Flags (Positive Indicators) to keep track of:

• Increasing number of services built on OLAS Network

• Increasing amount of donations to the OLAS Treasury

• More initiatives to onboard developers into the ecosystem

• Use of treasury grants to fund more initiatives that grow the ecosystem

• More integrations with other blockchains (e.g. Solana) which expand the Autonolas Ecosystem exponentially 

• Evidence of adoption by established projects or teams can provide validation and support

Red Flags (Negative Indicators) to watch out for:

• Stagnant growth in the number of services, amount of donations, and number of developers in the ecosystem 

• Excessive speculation that may lead to inflated token valuations (resulting in misalignment with the token's intrinsic value, which could result in subsequent market corrections).

• Delayed or consistently missed milestones from the roadmap, which may hint at possible operational inefficiencies or execution problems.

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Helpful Links

Autonolas / OLAS Network:

• Autonolas Protocol

• OLAS Network

• Whitepaper

• FAQ

Dune Analytics:

• OLAS - Adrian0x 

• Autonolas Ecosystem Activity

Autonolas Academy - Learn how to set up an agent

• Academy

• Education Track

Appendix A

LinkedIn Fundraising Success Tweet in 2022

Appendix B

Valory Github Repository - with mention of Solana